Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s likely presidential campaign could split Southern GOP allegiances in 2016.
Bush’s office last week announced his resignation from corporate and nonprofit boards, laying another plank for a presidential run. If Bush enters the White House race, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s efforts to create a Southern superprimary on March 1, 2016, will gain more national attention.
Kemp believes the one-day Southern primary will increase the region’s clout in determining the party’s nominee. But a Bush candidacy will lower the odds of the region uniting behind one candidate. As 2016 political battle lines take shape in 2015, the South stands as the bellwether for national party divisions. State loyalties will be magnified if the regionwide primary takes shape.
Bush, the son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush, is seen as the favorite of the more mainstream GOP establishment. His support in Florida and family background in Texas will make him formidable in the region.
But the South won’t give its full support to Bush, who supports the national Common Core education standards and has taken a moderate position on issues such as immigration. Bush’s strong support in Florida will be weakened if more conservative U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio runs.
The party’s strong Tea Party wing in the region will support more conservative Southerners like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Rick Perry, weakening the region’s chances of uniting behind one candidate. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, with his Libertarian outlook, also looks formidable in the region.
Bush looks to have the strongest appeal in suburban states like Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia. But those states also have significant Tea Party voters who will favor Cruz or Perry. A Southern primary will increase the clout of smaller, more rural states like Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina and Alabama, likely to strongly back Cruz or Perry.
Kemp so far has drawn preliminary support from Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama to move their elections to March 1, 1916, and is asking Louisiana and South Carolina for similar commitments, according to the AJC. Tennessee, Florida and Texas already have their primaries scheduled for March 1, 2016.
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