A recent PPP poll indicating that Governor Nathan Deal and state Senator Jason Carter are virtually tied in a ballot test between the two potential opponents next November came as a shock to many in the political world in Georgia. It did not to InsiderAdvantage.
Polling prior to the second winter storm this season, our Deal-versus-Carter polling was showing something so shocking that we were forced to examine and reexamine every aspect of the poll.
In a survey that was completed just the day before the “Ice Storm” hit much of the state, Carter led Deal by 46% to 36%, with 18% undecided. In that poll independent voters had all but abandoned Deal, with Carter receiving 56% of their vote. At that point 13% of Republican voters chose Carter and 23% said they were undecided.
That was stunning. What were the flaws? The sample size was about the same as usual (404 statewide respondents,) which provided a reasonable margin of error. Weighting was our usual set — age, race, gender, and political affiliation. Even if the poll was off, it was well beyond the margin of error.
Then came the second storm. Deal’s performance was near perfection, and a poll for Fox5 (asking the same question that had resulted in terrible approval ratings after the first storm for Deal) showed overwhelming approval for the governor after the second storm.
But the follow-up Deal vs. Carter poll showed Carter and Deal basically tied. One version of the poll, using our standard weighting, showed Carter still leading Deal by two points. The other, one which readjusted weighting slightly to account for a potentially stronger GOP turnout in November, put Deal up by one percentage point. But either way the race was even.
But with power outages still an issue in a few areas, and with such a huge swing in numbers, back and forth, we decided to continue testing the race.
Last week we conducted a phone survey which suggested that Deal had returned to a lead in the race. But it was a precarious one. When the data were weighted, Deal led by six points. The poll was Deal 45% versus Carter at 39%. Still, the race appeared to be in such a wild flux, we chose not to release those numbers either.
Then came the PPP numbers and a survey by another firm, both jabbing at the concept that Deal might be vulnerable in the election. PPP’s numbers have shown fairly strong and, some could argue, ambitious numbers for Democrats in the top races this year. That said, their success level in the 2012 presidential year was phenomenal.
The other firm, belonging to pollster Fred Hicks, looked only at potential weakness for Deal among GOP identified voters. The poll looked to be on target, but the small percentage of Republican voters who stated in the survey that they would vote for a Democrat (Carter) was not unusually high, as is normally the case this far out, and usually disappears once an election arrives.
A few things stand out to us. First, it is increasingly clear that our online polling, as it did nationally in 2012 for other firms, is proving to be more accurate than phone polls. That doesn’t mean we will abandon phone surveys, but like TV meteorologists, we will likely offer two “models”— that of online and phone, so that those relying on polling have the most modern of choices. And in the near future we will poll this race again, and we will feel comfortable where the numbers are and be ready to release them.
With regard to the race itself, a few things stand out. There is little doubt that the reaction of state officials to the first winter storm damaged Deal. And the damage was more severe than most realized. While Deal has bounced back, making up a huge deficit to Carter to a likely five or six point lead, the race is, as PPP suggests, a very close one.
At this point Deal’s worst enemies politically are not likely Democrats but Republicans.
First, there is no evidence that his poorly funded opponents in the primary have any chance of knocking Deal off. Their existence, this close to the primary, only serves to force Governor Deal to waste precious money, time, and effort. They also give the media many extra weeks of focus on potential attack issues that would otherwise be reserved for the race against Carter. They are doing their party no real service and they have virtually no chance of defeating Deal.
Second, there is the legislature. With only a month or so left in the session, issues that seem really popular to state legislators playing to their own bases offer nothing but problems for the governor. A gun bill that receives 29% approval rating from females could really make the race difficult. And while the social issue proposals floating to the top at the last minute might seem nifty, they have not been tested by media polling. There is a strong likelihood that the totality of the legislation bubbling under the Gold Dome might hand the governor more burdens than blessings.
Deal will have the ability to bombard the airwaves soon, and if the message packs any form of punch (economic development themes don’t, as is proved in the polling) he will soar ahead of Carter.
And Carter has yet to have a glove glance off his political chin. The name Barack Obama alone could sink his chances
All of that said, this could be a very difficult year for Republicans in Georgia. The Deal camp likely knows that. But the legislators who continue to ignore poll after poll on hot-button issues clearly don’t. They need to pass a budget and go home. If they don’t, they risk starting the same sort of chain reaction that put the entire government in their hands in 2002; a reaction that would leave them, not so far in the future, as a minority party again.
