The race to replace a retiring Lynn Westmoreland in Georgia’s 3rd Congressional District has been remarkably quiet thus far, especially considering it features seven Republican candidates facing off in a May 24th primary that will more than likely determine the district’s next U.S. Representative.
Without the mud-slinging we’re seeing elsewhere in the state, and without much if any outside polling, a look at the campaign finance reports for the first period of the year may give us our best look at the state of the race heading into the final month of the campaign.
Arnall Thomas and Samuel Anders are the token fringe candidates, with the former not showing up as having filed a financial disclosure report and the latter sitting on a mere $5,600, all of which came as a personal loan from the candidate himself.
Likewise Chip Flanegan, who ran for Congress in 2014, raised a paltry $50 in contributions before loaning himself $150,000 and subsequently paying himself back $50,000 for what ends up being the strangest disclosure report of the bunch. With only about $8,000 actually spent on campaigning before March 1st, it seems a stretch that he’ll move on.
Newnan business owner Richard Mix fared better in terms of donations, but with only $46,150 in the bank on March 1st he’ll have trouble competing with the big boys come May.
Former West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson is the first in what appears to be the group of real contenders, with a hefty fundraising sum and a background in local politics. Ferguson served as Mayor from 2008-2016 before resigning to pursue his Congressional run, giving him a wealth of local contacts to pair with the surprisingly influential set of supporters he’s obtained at his day-job as a dentist. He led the pack in terms of money spent pre-March 1st at $94,528, a number buoyed by the $215,635 he raised from supporters, the most of any candidate in the race.
Real-estate firm owner Jim Pace leads the pack in terms of cash on hand, with $330,428 in the bank, an impressive $250,000 of which came from a personal loan. “This campaign isn’t about who has the most money,” said campaign manager Evan Karanovich in an ironic press release bragging about his candidate having the most money – but having the most cash to blow in a wide open race Pace in a strong position to move on to the runoff in July. He spent $42,000 on the race before March 1st, a total which according to Karanovich provides evidence of the “fiscal conservatism” Pace hopes to bring to Washington D.C.
State Senator Mike Crane is the best known of the candidates in political circles, having served under the Gold Dome since winning a special election in 2011. He is the chairman of the influential Reapportionment and Redistricting committee in the Senate, and should have by far the most connections to the powerful politicians and special interest groups in Atlanta. He stole some of the spotlight by being the first to publicly call for a special session to override Governor Nathan Deal’s veto of the ‘Religious Liberty Bill’, and has an endorsement from the influential Georgia Right to Life PAC. Those facts don’t seem to have spilled over into fundraising though, with Crane only bringing in $93,517 in the period and spending a meager $16,422 on his campaign. He’ll either need a late influx of cash or hope that name recognition alone will be enough to get him into the runoff in July. The State Senator also drew the ire of law enforcement officials last month after saying he would shoot any police officer who kicked down his door. Clearly his strategy is to get furthest to the right of the candidates in this dark red district, time will tell if that effort pays dividends.
If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote on May 24th, which is the overwhelmingly likely scenario, a runoff between the two top vote-getters will take place on July 26th. Expect two of Ferguson, Pace, and Crane to advance to a mid-summer showdown, with the money in their accounts the biggest factor in who can maintain a strong campaign for the three month sprint to the finish.
