An InsiderAdvantage survey of likely GOP primary voters this year shows a major shift in how Republican voters identify themselves. In a state where just four years ago over 60% of GOP primary voters identified themselves as “tea party” conservatives, that percentage has dropped to just 11%. Another 21% of likely GOP voters said they were conservative on fiscal and social issues but did not consider themselves to be associated with the “tea party” or its organizations.
And candidates aiming to the far right on issues might find other GOP voters less welcoming this year. Among voters who said they were Republicans who would vote in the GOP primary, some 33% said they were either moderate on social issues or moderate on both fiscal and social issues. Add to that independent voters who said they were either moderate on social issues (while remaining conservative on fiscal issues) or just plain moderate on all issues, but planned to vote in the GOP primary, and the “moderate” vote in May’s contests could be as high as 55%.
This turns conventional wisdom on its ear and suggests that candidates who are aiming their political muskets toward a tea party-type vote in Georgia might need to change their political weaponry and their aim.
And as for the concept that anyone is “leading” the GOP primary race for Senate, our internal tracking shows no candidate with a substantial lead and only candidate David Perdue emerging from the pack with any degree of “momentum,” and that is slight at best.
The real issue here is the potential composition of a May primary electorate versus Georgia’s more traditional July/August contests. With plenty of families still at home, in school, and not on vacations, the electorate will be filled with more moderate GOP primary voters than in the past.
Commercials aimed at being “folksy” and candidates who proclaim their extreme conservative views will likely find their efforts receiving a colder-than-usual reception this time around.
And for the record, in the latest InsiderAdvantage tracking survey of the GOP candidates for the U.S. Senate, Rep. Paul Broun, who was touted with a sizeable lead in one poll this week, is tied for fourth place with Rep. Jack Kingston. The difference is that Kingston is at least on television, albeit it with an ad that appears to be doing little for him with the more moderate suburban vote in this year’s contest. Broun has consistently been at about the same pace in most surveys and, absent an injection of cash for TV ads, may well end up not making the likely runoff.
Ironically, had Broun sought statewide office in 2010, he may well have been an unstoppable force. And that’s not to rule him out. But at this point in the race, only Perdue has shown any evidence of separating himself from the pack. And the true undecided percentage in the race, given the likely larger size of overall voters in the primary, is staggering.
