Note: Continuing our tradition both nationally (pollsters for Politico, 2008 presidential contest; Newsmax, 2012 presidential contest) and in Georgia pollsters for WXIA-TV 2002-2005; WSB-TV 2006-20011; WAGA-TV 2011 to present; as well as in major newspapers throughout the nation over the past twelve years) James will this year examine the elements that impact public opinion in major races. Today we examine the influence of the state’s largest daily newspaper.
He may have called it a “fish wrapper” months earlier, but Sunday’s AJC likely had Governor Deal and his campaign taking note of the headlines before they used the newspaper for something besides just reading.
In what might be considered a basic “primer” for the themes that will emerge against Deal in the 2014 primary and general election, an array of issues were covered in paper’s Sunday edition.
The front page provided a double, and to the politically sophisticated, potential triple whammy which did not go unnoticed by both GOP and Democratic operatives in Georgia.
Leading and above the fold on the front page was a story, complete with huge color photos of “the players” in what the paper headlines as “Deal ethics complaint leads to panel upheaval.” The story hinted that, along with relatively well-known aspects of Deal and the state ethics committee, “More revelations could emerge this week.” This is because one of several lawsuits related to allegations of pressure to downplay an ethics investigation of Deal and the consequences for several former commission employees is getting underway.
Next to the lead was another “above the fold” story suggesting that GEMA, which literally “melted down” during the recent “Snow Jam” had an “app” available to alert individuals of the emergency by cell phone, but failed to use it.
That story dovetailed with a story on the paper’s Metro section in which the headline read “Storm is fodder for Deal’s rivals” which more thoroughly examined the alleged failings of the Deal administration in handling the recent winter storm and how opponents plan to use the event to attack the governor in his reelection bid.
Below that was a column highlighting that a new version of a controversial GOP-sponsored gun bill has “returned stronger” in the legislature. Past polling suggests prior versions of the bill fare poorly with women and independent voters, the swing demographics in the 2014 general election. This political hot potato is widely known among political analysts as a potential problem for Deal, given that it would at some point either be vetoed by the governor or go into law prior to next November’s showdown with Sen. Jason Carter.
Back on the front page there appeared an interesting profile of rags-to-riches entrepreneur Richard Jackson, who has attracted media attention for his opulent lifestyle and willingness to pour huge amounts of money into political coffers, including that of Deal.
While the article suggested nothing untoward with regard to the healthcare magnate, such high profile coverage can often lead to less positive follow-up stories, particularly when readers of the story are asked to continue reading the article on jump page following the label “Power.”
The stories in Sunday’s Atlanta paper provide almost a guide to the themes that will be a part of the race for governor in 2014. Deal supporters view them as typical attacks from a newspaper known for its affinity for Democrats and which they believe has drifted further in that direction in the past year.
Democrats view the stories as strong investigative journalism and a balanced reporting of obvious major stories.
But what do voters make of these stories and themes?
Newspapers are doing better these days, and with that success the AJC has become more assertive in its coverage of political leaders. That hasn’t been limited to Governor Deal. Following the winter storm, Mayor Reed also received a big dose of the AJC’s current approach.
While most voters don’t read daily newspapers, reporters at television stations do. And as to formation of public opinion, television coverage, along with political ads, lead to a general formation of it. And newspaper headlines come in handy as props in attack ads that appear months later. Given that, how do the themes impact Deal?
Ethics
The good news for Deal is that, so far, the stories about the ethics commission are detailed, complex and hard for the average reader to understand. That’s the nature of such a story. As a result, our recent polling indicated that a relatively small segment of voters view Deal as being “ethically challenged.”
But clearly the issue is having some sort of “wait and see” effect. In polling both Deal’s race in the GOP primary and the potential race against Carter, Deal has, on average, stayed at or below the 45% mark. That’s not fatal to an incumbent, but it does suggest that a continued pounding on the ethics issue with civil proceedings potentially being confused by the public as criminal ones may be giving some voters pause for concern.
And the sideshow of some federal investigation, the magnitude of which is still unknown, gives potential for the ethics issue to be an increasingly significant challenge for Deal. It won’t likely defeat him unless it reaches Deal or a top aide directly. But timing could make a difference. If it lingers until November with some “October Surprise” story, then ethics could make the race close.
Snow Jam
This was a temporary assault on Deal’s approval ratings. Nearly half of respondents in our statewide poll did not approve of how he handled the storm. But the political value of the perceived weak performance will hinge on several things, which include: whether his opponents muster enough in resources to put up ads reminding metro-Atlanta voters of the mess and place the burden on Deal; how Deal and his administration respond to any future similar storms (they may well have their chance for a redo this week); whether the public will vividly remember a winter storm by May, much less next November.
Gun legislation
The entire weekend’s worth of AJC articles (both online and in print) set forth other issues that will be in play in this election cycle. Ironically the most potent of these issues might be a gun bill that has, in its past forms, received a poor reception both in surveys by InsiderAdvantage and by the AJC.
The bill creates a nearly impossible situation for Deal in that if passed by the legislature, Deal will be pressed by gun rights supporters to sign the bill before the May primary. To do so would marginally increase his already strong chances of a win in that contest. But by July Deal would either have to veto the measure, which might anger his base (much like the flaggers of the Roy Barnes era) or allow it to become law.
If it becomes law Deal can expect both the campaigns of Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn to use the bill to illustrate their contention that Georgia Republicans are out of touch with female voters including mothers and their children. The Nunn campaign would want to wrap itself into this state issue and the Carter campaign would definitely use the theme to lure critically important female and independent voters into its camp.
State employee healthcare
Pay for teachers, and other issues: Among the other issues mentioned this weekend was the “battle” between the GOP governor and GOP school board members in counties such as Cobb over funding of schools.
The real issue is one of just how upset educators and state workers are over the status of their pay and the new state healthcare program selected for state workers. In 2002 it was a combination of irritation by teachers, a segment of voters who were upset over the changing of the state flag, and a general image pushed by his opponents of a “King Governor” that led to the upset defeat of Roy Barnes in 2002.
For Deal to actually be knocked off in a primary would be a shocker and highly unlikely. Only an extremely well-run “micro” campaign, targeting disaffected Republicans on local issues or specific matters, could have the slightest chance of shoving Deal into a primary. However, if Deal were hit with new ethics stories right before the contest, his opponents could argue that he is a risk to nominate and the ploy might work just enough to edge Deal close to a runoff, which would be interpreted by pundits as an indication of vulnerability for a November showdown.
But all of that is unlikely. The greater threat will come against Jason Carter, as the themes highlighted by the AJC this weekend begin to take form in a barrage of media stories, TV ads, and the potential “October surprise.”
All of this said, analysts note that Sonny Perdue faced “suspicious land deal” allegations, again a major focus of the media, yet won a resounding reelection in 2006. And Nathan Deal himself was the center of the first wave of what has now become “the never-ending story” of ethics, but went on to defeat former Governor Barnes with room to spare in 2010.
In the end, Deal’s greatest plus is the abysmal approval ratings for President Obama in Georgia, now at only 37%. If Obama remains at such low levels of support in Georgia, nothing less than a good old-fashioned Carter family war on an incumbent president (not unheard of in years past, it should be noted) combined with some really jarring news in the ethics story, and plenty of other problems, could likely turn Deal out.
But if someone wanted a readers’ guide to the various ingredients needed to oust Deal from office, they got it all in one weekend’s worth of AJC reports. The newspaper’s greatest impact in these days of social media and continued dominance of television news may have changed from years earlier, but it remains a major source of framing the issues in political races in Georgia, particularly in understanding the issues Democratic candidates will ultimately use against their GOP opponents.
