An InsiderAdvantage survey of 486 voters in Georgia has Governor Nathan Deal trailing Democrat Jason Carter in the race for governor, with Carter at 41% and Deal at 38%. The survey’s margin of error is 4.3%, which means the two are statistically tied in the poll. This is the fourth survey InsiderAdvantage has conducted recently in the race. All of the surveys have shown the race as extremely tight.
Here are highlights of the poll:
- Carter 41%; Deal 38%; Undecided 21%
- 59% of independent voters said they would vote for Carter if the election were held now
- 28% of Republicans said they were undecided
- Voters 65 and over favor Deal by a 52%-to-36% margin
- Among voters between the age of 30-44 Carter leads 55%-to-23%
InsiderAdvantage CEO/Fox 5 Political Analyst Matt Towery: “Our polling showed a serious shift of opinion among independent voters after the first major snowstorm. Just prior to the second winter storm, Deal trailed Carter substantially. After the second storm Deal and Carter were back running neck and neck.
“I expect Governor Deal’s numbers to improve substantially once he begins his advertising campaign. That said, the economic-development-related ads the Deal campaign ran a few months ago appeared to have virtually no impact on his numbers.
“The Deal campaign needs to highlight and advertise Governor and Mrs. Deal themselves, as they are extremely personable. That is their best product and campaign attribute.
“For Carter, the challenge will be to keep the independent voters on his side. One thing helping him this year is that the Georgia electorate as a whole is less conservative than it was in 2010. But it should be noted that Jason Carter does not have great name identification. This is an anti-Deal vote at present.
“The Deal team could ’introduce’ Carter in a very negative light, and that would also potentially give Deal a lead.
“As for the GOP primary, while Deal’s numbers in that race have been somewhat anemic, his opponents hardly even scratch. Unless one of these two Republican challengers can get their hands on a million dollars quickly, we would anticipate a Deal primary victory of around 70% of the vote.
“That victory will give Governor Deal another shot in the arm. The race between Deal and Carter will be one to watch once it gets into gear,” said Towery.
Poll conducted March 9-10. Online random sample conducted with our online partner OpinionSavvy (www.opinionsavvy.com).
