As a political professional, I prefer not to use war metaphors to describe politics, but in the case of the Georgia Senate race, it is now impossible to do so.
This weekend, a group called the Senate Battleground Fund raised $1 million with the help of hosts Jeffrey Sprecher and Kelly Loeffler, along with special guests Mitt Romney and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus. The funds are intended to boost the chances of electing whomever the eventual Republican nominee is for United States Senate.
This underscores the idea, floated frequently in the media, that Georgia is in play for a potential Democratic pickup in 2014.
Statistical analyst Nate Silver recently released a prediction based on quantitative modeling, that control of the Senate is likely to change hands to the GOP in this year’s general election, and Democratic hopes retaining the senior chamber include at the very least, making the GOP invest heavily to retain Georgia’s seat. Silver wrote:
We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Predictably, national Democrats were critical of Silver’s prediction.
In a memo released Monday morning, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil pointed to red states where Democrats surpassed expectations in 2012 in a rebuttal to Silver.
“Nate Silver and the staff at FiveThirtyEight are doing groundbreaking work, but, as they have noted, they have to base their forecasts on a scarce supply of public polls. In some cases more than half of these polls come from GOP polling outfits,” writes Cecil. “This was one reason why FiveThirtyEight forecasts in North Dakota and Montana were so far off in 2012. In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecasted a 61% likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority. Three months later Democrats went on to win 55 seats.”
This prediction comes several weeks after University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball assessed the likelihood of partisan control switching.
Appearing on Fox News Channel’s “Hannity,” Sabato, head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said if the GOP still leads in September, they can expect to pick up the six Senate seats needed for a majority.
Republicans already control the House of Representatives, but will pick up seats there as well, he said, likely in the single digits.
Sabato sees two autoautomatic Senate seat pickups in West Virginia and South Dakota. Republicans also have good chances in Montana and Alaska. The other close races are in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.
But the battleground expanded on Wednesday when Rep. Corey Gardner in Colorado decided to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Udall.
“Suddenly, Colorado’s on the map of closely contested Senate races,” Sabato said.
Democrats see the writing on the wall, Sabato said, and are pushing minimum wage and income inequality in hopes of rallying their base, which is currently far less enthusiastic about showing up at the polls than Republicans, who have Obamacare and other issues firing them up.
While statistical analysis is handy for predicting elections, my first rule has always been “Show Me Follow the Money.” Raising $1 million to spend on third-party efforts to retain Georgia’s Senate seat in the red column strongly suggests that Republicans are taking nothing for granted this year.
