People ask us what we make of Georgia Right To Like being replaced by Georgia Life Alliance as the state affiliate of National Right to Life. It’s at least partly about the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, right?
Yes, it’s about that, and more generally, it’s about an attempt by some to moderate the overall public perception of the Georgia Republican Party. Georgia Right To Life opposes abortions for women who are the victims of rape or incest. So in the minds of many, if not most Georgians, Right To Life and the Republican candidates they support are ‘extremists.’
Politically – morals aside, one way or the other – this was probably a wise move. Demographics are changing in Georgia, and for Republicans, getting elected to statewide office more and more is going to be less about debating ideological purity and more about trawling for votes among moderate and independent voters.
The Republican Senate primary campaign is about to get intense, and some in the party are afraid that debate among candidates might spark a serious verbal gaff from somebody, such as the comment in the last election cycle in 2012 when a U.S. Senate candidate in Missouri used the phrase “legitimate rape.” Such a tactical blunder could conceivably cost Republicans the Georgia Senate seat, and thus possibly even majority control of the Senate itself.
This could pan out in likely one of two ways. Georgia Right To Life has been considered by some as a necessary endorsement for GOP candidates. And yet only one of the major Senate candidates is now seen as sticking with Georgia Right To Life over Georgia Right Alliance, and that’s Paul Broun.
The thinking is that there is safety in numbers: If all but Broun back away from Georgia Right To Life at once and in the spotlight, they might be able to break Georgia Right to Life’s stranglehold on conservative social politics in Georgia.
At least as likely is that the coming stridency of the abortion debate in the GOP Senate campaign is going to draw much more public notice than it normally would. This could mean that the moderate and independent voters that will be so sorely needed by the GOP in the general election are going to be shaking their heads that the same old Republican Party is tearing itself apart over conservative ideology debates. According to this line of thinking, voters will be so disgusted with the GOP overall that they vote for the perceived moderate, Democrat Michelle Nunn.
Watch Republican senatorial candidate Karen Handel. Even though she is the only major candidate who previously has run for statewide office, she hasn’t enough name ID – or voter approval – to yet earn her way into a prominent position in the polls.
Handel is a pro-life candidate who has long battled with Right To Life over rape and incest exceptions. Look for her to try to leverage this rupture within the pro-life political community into new traction for herself in the Senate race. It could be free widespread publicity for her.
If Handel takes the brunt of the heat in debating with Broun over the finer distinctions of abortion policy, and then neither of them makes the likely Senate runoff, the eventual GOP nominee may sail into the clear for the fall election.
But an alternative outcome is that the voting public in November only sees a continually squabbling Republican Party, and votes Democrat. Guns and abortion might make compelling ads for Michelle Nunn.
