The civil verdict in the so-called “Ethics Case” on April 4 brought on a slew of opinion columns, all of them advancing the concept that Governor Nathan Deal’s reelection is suddenly in trouble because of the issues the court verdict raises and the potential legal problems it might cause.
That analysis may well be true, but it misses a larger point: Governor Deal’s candidacy was already facing trouble. But we have noted over and again that this initial “trouble” came from a freak snowstorm more than from any “larceny under the Gold Dome” (or anywhere else).
Unless federal agents drag Deal out of the capitol in handcuffs before November, ethics will not be the deciding factor in the race for governor. But it could add to a series of issues to make what every non-partisan, news pollster has known to exist since January – a Deal-Jason Carter contest that’s not only close right now, but that could be close in November as well.
That begs the question, “Why allow it to get close?” The answer, a simple one, is “Don’t.”
But a simple answer isn’t necessarily an easy one. In this case, it would require that the placid weeks following a comparatively quiet session of the General Assembly be filled with television ads featuring the likeable Nathan Deal and the equally likeable first lady Sandra. Ads about economic development or new roads or anything of policy substance aren’t called for here. What’s called for are, again, television spots about highly likeable people who happen to live in the Governor’s Mansion.
With early voting starting in late April, the time to fill the hearts of voters with warm and fuzzy feelings about their governor is slipping away. And the polling numbers that are starting to emerge suggest a deep need to establish as large of a lead, filled with love and loyalty from likely voters, as is humanly possible.
My experience over decades tells me that “he’s a crook” ads have never worked to defeat a candidate for governor in Georgia and likely never will. But there is another observation from years of campaigns that is more of a danger for Republicans, particularly the Deal campaign. It’s that the “he’s too liberal” commercial (“he” being Jason Carter) has never seemed to defeat a candidate either. And in a year in which voters are moving increasingly to the more moderate end of a still-predominantly conservative philosophy, such a campaign waged against Carter would likely yield little for the Deal camp.
In Florida, Governor Rick Scott, who can’t hold a candle to Deal in terms of likeability or genuine warmth, is rising in the polls, mainly because Florida’s economy is improving. But for Nathan Deal, trumpeting better times and economic progress in ads earlier this year didn’t move the polls by a single point.
In Deal’s case, he must counter the endless drip, drip, drip of the confusing ethics mantra that now somehow seems more concrete to the media than it did, but likely is just as hazy as ever to the public. And more importantly, he must win back huge numbers of disaffected independent voters who are upset over one snowstorm, as well as state workers who are irritated over their healthcare costs. Ironically, logic and reason won’t win that battle. It instead will require instilling love for a loveable governor and his wife.
But courting a confused public takes time. And right around the corner is waiting what initially may look like a naïve kid named Carter. Instead, he is, by training and instinct, a dangerously potent opponent for an incumbent suffering from anemic polling numbers.
If we don’t see the Deal campaign stop hiding their “light under a bushel,” and quickly, the race that should be a six or seven point easy victory for the governor in November may well be the race every non-partisan, news pollster has it as today — a dead-heat nail-biter. It’s time to let Nathan and Sandra Deal fill every living room with their genuinely feel-good vibes.
We may well know how November will turn out based on what we see, or don’t see, on TV from the Deal campaign this week.
