That’s what my dad used to say to folks in the business and political world who tested his patience. Great Republicans like Mack Mattingly, the late-Bob Bell, Guy Millner, Newt Gingrich, Johnny Isakson, and Roy Barnes would easily understand that phrase from this man now in his 80s and facing challenging health who they knew as “Buddy.” Dad loved each of them and chose to support them because they never played games or ignored his very infrequent words of wisdom.
So I think in my father’s footsteps I will take his lead. Once and for all, set the record straight on InsiderAdvantage and our polling record in Georgia. I think most folks know that I hold “partisan pollsters” in contempt partly out of irritation and partly out of jealousy. Contempt because they are so often wrong and jealousy because they get paid so much to be incorrect.
Since 2002 InsiderAdvantage has put itself “out there” by polling for news organizations that will not accept any silly games. Hence, no inflated numbers and no mixing of “favorability” with the “horse race” ballot question. We’ve had to play it down the line and live with the fact that our surveys have basically been a part of the RealClearPolitics average since…they started.
In Georgia, the facts suggest, we have enjoyed virtually a perfect score in terms of getting races right…both along the way and in our final pre-election survey. I don’t state this to put other true news pollsters down. I am proud to think that both Rosetta Stone and Landmark Communications (who have worked with us in hundreds of polls in the past) carry on our tradition with our good friends at WSB (where I resided for years). SurveyUSA, who polls for 11Alive (where I started out) does a great job polling races in Georgia as well.
But after hundreds and hundreds of polls over the past twelve years, our firm has established the longest running record in Georgia politics. And as a result, every election season we become the biggest target for complaint by politicians and pundits who…don’t like the truth.
So rather than blurt out expletives or provide double talk, let’s just look at the most recent competitive race for Governor of Georgia and U.S. Senate and see what we polled as opposed to what was the final result.
Let’s start with the U.S. Senate reelection bid of Saxby Chambliss in 2008. The General Primary was not an issue (though we got it right on the competitive Democratic side). It was the General Election that mattered. Our final poll for WSB-TV on October 24, 2008 was: Chambliss 44%; Martin 42%; Libertarian 2%; 12% undecided. The result on election night was: Chambliss 49.8%; Martin 46.8%; Libertarian 3.4%.
Wow. A two point difference just as we said. Chambliss was forced into a runoff which he ultimately won.
Now to the gubernatorial race of 2008. The GOP General Primary was the big deal that year. Our final survey for WSB in that race was: Handel 28%; Deal 17%; Johnson 14%; the rest going to different candidates or undecided. The actual outcome was: Handel 34%; Deal 23%; Johnson 20%; the rest to other candidates. I believe we were the only pollster to have the correct order of finish with big names putting John Oxendine in the runoff…incorrectly so.
Moving to the runoff in that election, our final poll was: Deal 46%; Handel 46%; Undecided 8%. The final results were: Deal 50.2%; Handel 49.8%.
Of course this article doesn’t even touch on our final survey in 2002 for 11Alive showing Roy Barnes in a statistical tie with Sonny Perdue, or the two times we showed Cynthia McKinney losing in upsets, or the Atlanta race for Mayor where we showed Kasim Reed tied with Mary Norwood and ultimately winning by less than a percentage or so in a runoff (which was the actual result).
You might ask, “Why is Matt so defensive?” Well I’m really not. I’ve moved on to much bigger and better things in my life, but the IA polling unit is still my baby. And when I have alleged “pollsters” suggesting I’m just a “journalist” (hey Atlanta Press Club, we know I’m not a journalist, huh?), or picking on our numbers I have to take up for us.
Yes, we could be completely off this year (but I doubt it). And yes, we have been right and wrong in races in other states (we did great as Politico’s pollsters in 2008, but were hit or miss with the Romney debacle on 2012).
But one thing I know is that firms such as ours, John Garst at Rosetta, the folks at SurveyUSA, and most other broadcast media pollsters, will always do circles around the “pay me and I’ll give you numbers that make you feel good” folks who make up the partisan pollsters in the state and nation. My rule of thumb in judging Georgia pollsters is pretty simple—If they haven’t spent at least a million dollars in this state polling for non-partisan media clients, don’t give them the time of day. That narrows things down, does it not?
Oh, and I didn’t even mention how we polled the legendary “T-SPLOST” of 2012 as a loser from start to finish. That only cost a bunch of naïve business leaders millions in silly fees and media buys that never had a prayer.
As Buddy would say, “I’m so damned sick and tired of you people.” And he would be right.
