Here’s a quick update based on our daily tracking of the Georgia GOP U.S. Senate contest:
- Most pollsters are agreed that the raw responses to their calls this year are comprised of an older-than-usual likely voter base. And no, that’s not because of cell phones. Younger voters are telling survey groups that they are “iffy” at best as to whether they will vote on Tuesday. So they don’t make it into to the “likely voter” pool.
- Jack Kingston’s most recent ads have greatly improved and the results are showing up in the polling. While Kingston was stagnant or even dropping over the past three weeks, he has stopped “the drop” and appears to be gaining momentum. But he and Karen Handel are still battling it out for a much closer second place finish than has been suggested by some other polls. We’ve checked with other news pollsters we have worked with in the past who are polling the race and they are getting the same results as we are. But Kingston’s barrage of the media with polished ads is having a positive impact on his numbers and might propel him into a second place, runoff finish.
- The attack ads on David Perdue have yet to show an impact in our tracking polls. By experience, it takes about a week for a fully funded “negative” ad to impact numbers. If Perdue sustains damage it will likely show up in our polling this weekend, but it is doubtful that the ads would put Perdue in third place, unless…
- ….Turnout is really wacky this year. Handel has the strongest turnout machine and will use her social media and automated call systems to identify and turnout votes. Kingston must match this automated identification and turnout method or risk being in second in the final polls, but in third place with voters who actually turn out to vote. Perdue’s only weakness might be found in what he proclaims his strength — no ties to elected Republican politics. While he is known by a select group of wealthy GOP activists, Perdue is an unknown among most in the Georgia GOP political universe. Hence, the depth of his turnout effort will hinge on hoping that older voters turn out at the levels expected. If Handel and Kingston work their bases with strong automated voter identification and turnout efforts in the last few days, it is possible that Perdue could substantially underperform in the real vote as opposed to his polling numbers.
- I can virtually assure TV viewers on Tuesday night that the runoff will not be decided until later in the evening. Fulton County has always been slow to report numbers and Cobb has become notoriously slow as well. Those two counties alone hold a massive number of GOP votes, and the level to which Phil Gingrey might cut into the frontrunners, particularly in Cobb, remains to be seen. Fulton should be a Handel bastion; however, a large number of Fulton Republican elected officials have come out against her, based on prior tiffs they had with her in 2010. Whether they will actually influence the vote remains to be seen. I expect election night returns to show Perdue and Kingston leading early-on, as several more rural or coastal counties will report early. As we get into metro-Atlanta the race will tighten. What the various campaigns do in the remaining days of the campaign might decide just how tight the race will be.
