Here’s a down-and-dirty glance at the apparent advantages and disadvantages that Jack Kingston and David Perdue have as they hit the ground running in their Republican runoff campaign for U.S. Senate. This isn’t a prediction of the outcome, but a roughly drawn map of where the race is today.
- Best suited to face Michelle Nunn – Perdue. Nunn’s highest-percentage campaign theme won’t be a left-wing partisan one, but instead one that presents herself as an outsider to the Washington establishment; someone who can come in and clean things up. That theme would play much stronger against the 11-term congressman Kingston than against Perdue, who also styles himself as an outsider.
- Most appealing personality – Kingston. The Savannah congressman has a natural ‘aw shucks’ demeanor that could help neutralize his status as a perceived Washington insider. The man is disarming. Perdue looks a little wilier by comparison. This can matter, especially among women, even if they can’t quite put their fingers on why they get this impression.
- Not having a ‘tea party’ opponent – Perdue. At first blush it might seem that Kingston would be at a disadvantage against a tea party runoff opponent because he is one of the establishment incumbents the tea partyers routinely target. But that would have been neutralized somewhat by his own conservative bona fides: Last year National Journal ranked Kingston No. 17 on its list of the most conservative congressmen. Perdue, on the other hand, would have had to split the reformers’ vote with a self-described tea party sympathizer as an opponent. In this regard, Perdue is fortunate that his opponent is indeed an ‘insider’ to his ‘outsider.’
- Home base advantage – Kingston. A look at the county-by-county outcomes from the general primary shows that most all of south Georgia considers itself as home turf for the Savannah congressman; apparently less of middle Georgia identifies with native-son Perdue. Of course the bulk of runoff votes will come from metro-Atlanta. But Kingston seems to have a head-start of sorts.
- Television ad campaign – Perdue. His ‘Washington babies’ ads were probably the biggest single factor in the general primary campaign. Virtually overnight they catapulted him from political unknown to frontrunner. Kingston’s campaign took longer to produce the all-but-requisite clever ads. But that’s all passé. More important is that Kingston’s 20-plus years in Washington make him an easier target for the inevitable avalanche of negative ads to come.
- The extended runoff calendar – Kingston. Georgia’s primary runoff campaign used to last three weeks. Now it lasts nine. It may be harder for the Kingston campaign to come up with enough negative ads to fill the airwaves for that long; probably harder than for Perdue’s to do likewise to Kingston. But a short campaign might have allowed Perdue’s advantage in personal wealth to come to bear. Over nearly two months, Kingston’s superior fundraising prowess has time to have its effect. A key will be whether and to what extent the super PAC Citizens for a Working America comes through for Perdue, as it did in the general primary campaign.
- Name ID – Even. From his more than two decades in Congress, Kingston seems to have substantial name ID south of the Gnat Line, and some voters north of it probably find his name vaguely familiar. Perdue bought himself name ID with his clever TV ads; more, he shares bloodlines and surnames with former Gov. Sonny Perdue.
- Expected low turnout – Kingston. Perdue appeals more to the casual and independent voters; those who might like him for his ads or his outsider status, but who may not trouble to vote. Kingston, with his 95 percent ‘conservative’ ranking, likely has the support of the doctrinaire right-wingers. And they are more likely to vote.
