The question on the minds of many people yesterday was what effect Eric Cantor’s loss in the Republican Primary in Virginia’s Seventh District will mean for Georgia. Whether Rep. Tom Price will move up in the domino game that will follow the opening of a seat in the party leadership is question number one. The second question is whether the Senate runoff will play out like the Virginia race.
Not immersing myself in Washington goings-on, I don’t know whether Price is running for one of the marquee spots, if he’ll be content with something a little lower on the totem pole, or if his priorities have changed, but his race for Conference Chairman in 2012 showed that he had his eye on moving up within the chamber.
Local news outlets have seized on the idea of Price as a successor to Cantor as Majority Leader, though the Congressman has yet to declare for any caucus office. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who like Price served as a party leader in the Georgia legislature, seems to have indicated he is open to the idea of running for a leadership position. Both men will have to decide quickly, as elections for Majority Leader and the other slots sure to open are scheduled for one week from today.
While a number of folks have suggested that Cantor’s home district loss provides a model for the Senate runoff, most have meant it could show David Perdue a path to victory against 22-year Congressman Jack Kingston. I think the dynamics of the race and Perdue’s campaign so far rule that out.
Tea party groups have been quick to claim credit for Dave Brat’s come-from-nowhere victory, but Perdue appears to have limited appeal to these voters and activists. His refusal to throw red meat to the lions and recognition that some issues are more complex than a soundbite meant that few, if any, tea party organizations have supported his campaign thus far. While Kingston is not a darling of the Tea Party movement, he has garnered the most high profile Tea Party aligned endorsement in the race, coming from Atlanta Tea Party co-founder Julianne Thompson, who supported Karen Handel in the Primary.
Cantor has been criticized for having apparently given his constituents short shrift as he traveled the country building the GOP House majority. In this campaign, Jack Kingston has shown himself an indefatigable campaigner, and there have been days when I’ve seen him at more local GOP events than I’ve seen Perdue at all year. Additionally, the 75-some percent of his First Congressional District voters who cast their ballots for Kingston in the Senate primary show that his geographic base has been well-tended and remains solidly behind him.
Finally, Cantor’s role as a leading proponent of what some on the right call “amnesty” played a role in galvanizing support for the Virginia congressional challenger. But yesterday, Kingston opposed what he called a “back door amnesty” measure while Perdue has not made immigration a cornerstone of his campaign.
While so many armchair politicos have been eager to make Cantor’s defeat a model for other primary elections contests in the coming weeks, perhaps a different race, closer to home here in Georgia, should be considered. On the same day that Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s defeat stunned the nation, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, besieged by Tea Party activists from almost the beginning of the movement, cruised to victory in his primary with what appears to be a 40+ point margin over his nearest competitor in a crowded field.
