The party primaries in eight Southern states held so far tell a remarkable story of the region’s shift from Democratic hegemony to Republican dominance. Some 64% of the turnout has been in Republican primaries, to 36% in the Democratic ones. The GOP vote exceeded that of the Democrats in seven of the eight states. The strongest Republican share of the primary vote was 79% in Mississippi, followed by 74% in South Carolina 71% in Alabama and Texas, and 65% in Georgia. The primary turnout in Arkansas was relatively close – 54% Republican to 46% Democratic, and was a virtual tie in North Carolina.
While turnout in each state is very much a function of the competitive races on the ballot, locally as well as statewide and in congressional districts, the pattern was fairly consistent throughout the region, underscoring the continuing Republican trend in the region that was once a Democratic stronghold.
Two exceptions in these eight states are in Kentucky, where Democrats won the turnout race by 53% to 47%, and North Carolina, where the GOP margin was razor-thin. Not coincidentally, in both of these states voters register by party affiliation. In Kentucky, one must be registered in that party to vote in its primary. The same is true in North Carolina, except that unaffiliated registrants may choose to vote in either – but not both – party primaries.
Party registration may have had the effect of slowing the growth of the Republican Party on the local level, with Democratic majorities in counties tending to keep Democrats in control of the county court house and its locally important offices, such as sheriff. Thus, some Kentucky voters may maintain a Democratic registration to have a voice in local government, making them ineligible to participate in a statewide Republican Primary. Indeed, despite statewide trends favorable to the GOP, Democrats still hold a 54-46 majority in the Kentucky House of Representatives.
In North Carolina, however, Republicans have solid majorities in both legislative chambers. The size of the Democratic Primary turnout may reflect the long-standing tradition of a significant liberal presence among the state’s white voters, something not always present in other Southern states. Remember that Barack Obama narrowly carried the Tar Heel State in 2008, though he lost it – again, narrowly – in 2012.
This imbalance in party strength, as reflected in primary turnouts, is not an entirely new phenomenon, though the discrepancy in the GOP’s favor has intensified in the past decade. Several examples: In 2004, in Georgia the Republican primary turnout was 51% to the Democrats’ 49%, a far cry from today’s 65/35. In South Carolina, ten years ago, with US Senate races in both parties, Republican turnout was 64% of the total, to the Democrats 36%; a decade later the ratio was 74/26. And in North Carolina, the
Democrats’ share of the primary vote in 2004 was 55% to the GOP’s 45%, compared with today’s 50.5% (R) to 49.7% (D).
GOP Dems Date
Alabama 432,721 71% 180,455 29% June 3
Arkansas 178,319 54% 152,807 46% May 27
Georgia 603,880 65% 328,047 35% May 20
Kentucky 354,991 47% 402,639 53% May 20
Mississippi 313,483 79% 84,334 21% June 3
North Carolina 487,474 50.3% 481,858 49.7% May 6
South Carolina 316,252 74% 113,273 26% June 10
Texas 1,333,100 71% 546,523 29% March 4
Total 4,020,320 64% 2,289,936 36 %
Getting the higher turnout in the primaries does not always translate into victory in November, but it is a positive indicator. Stay tuned.
