The narrowing of the race between Jack Kingston and David Perdue really isn’t hard to understand once you connect the dots from the cross tabulations of the poll and add into the mix a breakdown by geographic regions.
A quick look at the breakdown of the vote by age groups shows Kingston leading among all age groups except for the one segment which is most important in a GOP primary runoff—those age 65 and over. That segment of voters are the most likely to watch local news and read local newspapers. That’s why the so-called “fundraising scandal” which arose after Kingston made the runoff, is hurting his campaign. The Perdue campaign suggests the real damage to Kingston is coming from his votes for so-called earmarks in past Congressional budgets. But quite clearly the ads are having little impact, since they run at times when various younger age groups might be tuning into a TV program, but still say they support Kingston.
Much like in the primary, the Kingston campaign has allowed the Perdue camp to take an advantage in areas outside of the coastal and other southern sections of the state, For example, in South Georgia Kingston leads by a 67%-to-23% margin (undecided voters make up the rest of these numbers). But in metro-Atlanta Perdue leads Kingston by 48%-to-38%. North Georgia is close to a draw. But in Middle Georgia, home of one Sonny Perdue (cousin to David Perdue) the poll shows Perdue with a 51%-30% margin.
All of this can change. Kingston needs news ads quickly and a strong response to the “donation” issue. And he needs the active help and involvement of team Handel. Karen Handel’s endorsement is huge but has been somewhat squandered by the Kingston campaign. Add a real robocall endorsement from Newt Gingrich, who carried Georgia big time in his presidential bid, and Kingston could jump back into the lead.
As for Perdue, he needs a huge turnout of voters from metro-Atlanta and to hold his lead in Middle Georgia. He also needs to avoid letting his TV ads get stale. If Kingston shifts momentum back his way, there might not be time for another encore by Perdue.
Both sides say their pollsters show them winning. Obviously one is wrong. But my guess is that both are slightly off. This thing is a dead heat that will likely break one way another in the next ten days.
