Recent polls show Jason Carter leading Nathan Deal in the race for governor, but demographics and recent statewide election results indicate that Carter still has an uphill climb. His best bet at pulling the upset may well be a December runoff. Statewide candidates in Georgia must receive one more vote than 50 percent to win a general election outright.
An electorate with its mind more on the winter holidays than on Georgia politics might create a low-turnout scenario in which anything could happen in a runoff.
Is there a precedent for this in recent memory? Yes and no. In 2008, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss was forced into a general election runoff against Democrat Jim Martin, a comparative unknown.
In the general election, Chambliss won 49.8 percent to Martin’s 46.8 percent. The libertarian candidate won 3.4 percent of the vote – enough to play the spoiler. Chambliss then ran away with the runoff, besting Martin by 15 percent. But it was startling to see an incumbent Republican unable to get half of the votes in a regular general election.
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