News that Georgia has the nation’s second worst unemployment shook the political landscape last week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Georgia with a 7.8 percent unemployment rate ranks 50th among the states and the District of Columbia, with only Mississippi faring worse. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter quickly seized upon the stark figure to hammer incumbent Nathan Deal’s economic policies.
“That statistic is tailor made for Jason Carter to use,” said campaign analyst Kerwin Swint, chair of Kennesaw State University’s Political Science Department. “It’s the perfect headline for mailers and TV ads. It’s a potent message, a big number.”
The Deal campaign responded that the unemployment report represents an increase in Georgia’s labor force as more residents move to the state seeking work and that he has actually increased jobs. But Carter kept on the offensive with a three-day barrage of speeches, videos and telephone conference calls, the AJC reported.
Adding credibility to Deal’s claims, the Atlanta Regional Commission last week reported that the 10-county metro area’s population increased by around 52,700 newcomers from April 1, 2013, to April 1 this year. The ARC termed the jump “a sure sign that the economic recovery is continuing.
“While not as robust as growth during the boom years of the 1990s and early 2000s, this growth is greater than last year’s, and puts the region’s total population at 4,272,300, a number that is larger than the populations of 24 states,” an ARC news release said.
The new residents could affect the election, with those of higher income levels “more likely to vote than some other voting groups,” Swint said. “It depends on the level they’re paying attention and tuning into the campaign.”
Carter and Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn could benefit from an increased number of young professionals in urban areas. But Swint cautioned that GOP voters are likely to be more motivated, with an incumbent president’s party typically less enthusiastic in midterm elections.
But Carter’s energetic campaign is boosting Democratic hopes. Swint is among political observers who see Carter as having a strong chance to beat Deal, who has also faced heat over ethics issues.
“Jason Carter is a pretty darn good candidate,” Swint said. “He’s turning some heads. He understands how to run a statewide campaign. That’s a competitive race.”
Bad economic news continued with the State Labor Department reporting that metro Atlanta’s jobless rate climbed to 8 percent in July, an increase of five-tenths of a percentage point from June. Metro Atlanta mirrored unemployment increases across the state, attributed by the Labor Department to seasonal factors such as layoffs of school bus drivers. However, the department noted, most of those workers have returned to their jobs. The state’s other metro areas, as well as more rural counties, also saw unemployment rise.
Metro Athens showed the best rate, 6.6 percent. The highest unemployment figure was the Heart of Georgia-Altamaha region’s 11.4 percent. Metro Augusta matched Atlanta’s 8 percent, while metro Albany climbed to 9.1 percent from 8.7 in June, Dalton hit 10.4 percent, and Brunswick and Coiumbus showed 9.2 and 9.1 respectively.
The increases don’t favor Deal, but a closer look in metro Atlanta shows a mixed picture.
In metro Atlanta, while local government employment decreased, the private sector added 8,900 jobs in July. From July 2013 through last month, the metro region added 63,900 jobs, the largest increase over that time in nine years, the department said.
Other numbers show a complicated employment situation in metro Atlanta.
*A report by CBRE, a real-estate services company, ranked metro Atlanta’14th in high tech jobs growth among the nation’s top office markets from 2011-2013. The region’s growth rate was 10.7 percent.
*Inc. magazine’s annual list of the nation’s 5,000 fastest growing private companies ranked Atlanta third with 94 companies listed. The metro region ranked seventh with 209 of the fastest-growing companies, third in the Southeast behind Florida, 303, and Virginia, 284.
The gap between increased jobs and rising unemployment indicates a shortage of workers with high tech skills, which employers often cite. While Inc. cited the presence of Ga. Tech as a boon for Atlanta’s entrepreneurial culture, Georgia’s education system is not producing enough workers in science, math and technology. This shows how education and the economy are intertwined in the governor’s race.
Each candidate paints a separate picture of Georgia’s economy. The voters will decide which one is real.
