Months ago I helped start talk of a runoff in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Now the talk is full blown and for good reason. With only a month and a half before the November election, GOP Gov. Nathan Deal still hovers somewhere around the 45 percent mark (and that is stretching it) in his race against Democrat Jason Carter. Democrat Michelle Nunn remains competitive with Republican David Perdue.
But what we giveth, we can hedge on.
A private poll of Cobb County — two in fact, conducted by our firm last week– tells us that Deal is on target to carry the county at typical levels that might be expected of a Republican governor in 2014. That, by the way, is not the 61 percent plus level that then Gov.-Sonny Perdue reached in 2006. But it is still strong in a county that in the 2010 race for governor delivered the largest number of GOP votes of any county in Georgia, ahead of both Gwinnett and Fulton.
Our new survey of Cobb voters shows Deal already comfortably at 54 percent of the vote. Opponent Carter is at 38 percent. He has several points to go to match Cobb native Roy Barnes’ 2010 performance. Nunn is equally lagging versus Perdue.
This is good news for Deal. Cobb remains the crown jewel of the GOP in Georgia. His ability to reach a strong position, with some of September and all of October remaining, suggests a bulwark that will protect him against some last-minute assault.
And the news is better for Perdue, who runs several points ahead of Deal in his race against Nunn.
But there are hidden aspects to the Cobb results that suggest potential problems ahead for the GOP, and questionable current strategies by Carter and Nunn– both of whom appear afraid of taking on Cobb’s electorate.
Cobb, for lack of a more complex explanation, has become more moderate since 2010. Issues such as taxes or even so-called “social issues” receive a less conservative response than four years earlier. Only the move of the Atlanta Braves to Cobb, its handling and potential cost, seems to move poll respondents to a more negative and anti-Republican incumbent position.
Both Carter and Nunn have given every aspect of the Braves move to Cobb a complete pass this election season. This explains their anemic polling numbers among a sea of voters who identify themselves as “independents” and “unhappy” with numerous aspects of the ballpark move.
Ironically there is good news for supporters of the Braves move to Cobb in the polls. Support for the SPLOST, which is essential to funding the transportation needs of the new stadium, is stronger at this stage in the process than in the past two elections when it was considered.
If it is run properly, the SPLOST could well pass on Nov. 4. That would be a minor miracle— that is, if Carter and Nunn don’t choose to take on the various aspects of the Braves move to Cobb or if the Tea Party fails to reach voters by the tens of thousands. If the Tea Partiers do, all bets are off both on the SPLOST and the chances for Deal and Perdue in the November election. Should the matter become a major issue, our surveys would suggest a potential swing of as much as 10 percent or more to the Democrats and another three percent to the Libertarian in Cobb. That would mean Deal dips under 50 percent in the heartland of the Georgia GOP.
That would be a disaster for Republicans in Cobb. But it is also unlikely.
Both Carter and Nunn have been hesitant to touch the Braves move and time is dwindling. Moreover, our surveys suggest that Carter would have to overcome the youthful inexperience his own ads project and Nunn would have to blatantly shed herself of Barack Obama in a manner more obvious than is currently the case.
As a result, our guess is that Cobb will deliver a huge number of votes for Deal and Perdue. In Deal’s case that will avoid defeat and potentially a runoff. In Perdue’s instance, Cobb might just provide the same margin of victory given to the first statewide Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate to carry it back in 1980– the razor-thin number needed to declare outright victory for the Republican nominee.
