With the marquee U.S. Senate and governor’s races a dead heat, Democrats are making strong gains in other state races, according to a poll released this week.
The SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV 11 Alive News, also reported by the Atlanta Business Chronicle, showed Republican David Perdue at 46 percent and Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn at 45 percent in the Senate race. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jason Carter polled 45 percent and Republican incumbent Nathan Deal 44 percent.
Perdue fell by a point and Nunn gained a point compared with the same poll two weeks ago, SurveyUSA said. Carter was up a point and Deal down one.
“Neither lead is statistically significant; both contests should be reported as a tie,” SurveyUSA said. Libertarian candidates’ support looked strong enough to send both races into runoffs, the company said.
In other key races, Democratic candidates showed impressive gains. The poll was taken from Sept. 19 through Tuesday and released Wednesday.
Democratic state school superintendent candidate Valarie Wilson, with 44 percent support, closed to within 2 points of GOP candidate Richard Woods. Woods held a 12 point lead six weeks ago and a 4 point edge two weeks ago, SurveyUSA said.
Woods is opposed to the state’s Common Core standards, while Wilson is a strong adherent. With Carter emphasizing education in his gubernatorial campaign, a Wilson victory would make it easier for him to implement changes. Woods would likely oppose Carter’s educational program.
In the secretary of state’s race, Republican incumbent Brian Kemp, who once had a 17 point cushion, led Democrat Doreen Carter 46 percent to 44 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The poll was taken after Kemp announced voter registration fraud allegations against the New Georgia Project, begun by Democratic State Rep. Stacey Abrams. At a subsequent hearing, the secretary of state’s office backed away from the charges.
The poll noted that Carter had made “substantial inroads among women, where she had trailed by 9 and now leads by 5.”
Kemp drew 64 percent white support, 8 percent black and 42 percent Hispanic, while Carter had 88 percent black support and 27 percent from whites and 25 percent from Hispanics.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, GOP incumbent Casey Cagle was shown with a 4 point lead over Connie Stokes, after holding a 16 point lead previously.
However, Republican incumbent Sam Olens held a 7 point lead over challenger Greg Hecht, unchanged over two weeks ago, although Olens’ office recently paid a $10,000 fine for not disclosing documents in a whistleblower suit by the former director of the state ethics commission.
In the Senate race, the poll showed Libertarian Amanda Swafford with 4 percent of the vote. Six percent of likely voters were undecided. In the governor’s race, Libertarian Andrew Hunt held 4 percent of the vote, with 7 percent undecided.
The SurveyUSA poll prompted nationally known elections prognosticator Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight web site to declare Wednesday that a chance for a Georgia Senate runoff Jan. 6 “seems to be higher by the day.”
An article by FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten said that a Georgia runoff would likely determine if the Senate remains Democratic. The Republicans probably would need victories in Colorado, Iowa and Kansas “for Georgia not to determine the majority,” Enten said. “That’s possible but unlikely.”
FiveThirtyEight projects Perdue to lead the Nov. 4 vote by 3.2 percentage points, Enten noted. Swafford has averaged five percent in the last five polls, he said.
Debate controvery in 12th: The 12th congressional district race between Democratic incumbent John Barrow and challenger Rick Allen grew heated this week with a flurry of email attacks over a Saturday debate, or forum, in Augusta.
Barrow initially accused Allen of backing out of the debate originally scheduled for the Islamic Center of Augusta, but Allen said he never did so, according to an article by WJBF-TV reporter Renetta DuBose.
Both candidates will now participate in the event, moved to the Columbia County Government Complex in Evans. Allen foes claimed he tried to back out because of intolerance against the Islamic religion, leading to the venue change. The Islamic center remains a sponsor.
The Morris Communications-owned Columbia County News Times dropped out as a co-sponsor. An article in the Morris-owned Augusta Chronicle said the News Times did so because its co-sponsorship “implied indirect endorsements,” according to a Morris statement. However, News-Times publisher Steve Crawford still will serve as moderator.
