It sure has been fun reading all of the snarky comments written by various pollsters aimed at InsiderAdvantage polls this season. I’ve seen our polls dissected, parsed, pulled, chopped and grilled more than ever before. But fear not, this is not an attack on a fellow pollster.
Thursday evening Landmark Communications and WSB released polls in the U.S. Senate race and the race for Governor of Georgia. The polls showed David Perdue with 47.4% and Michelle Nunn with 46.6% of the vote. The Libertarian was at 2.7%. In the gubernatorial race Landmark had Nathan Deal with 47.5% of the vote, Jason Carter with 46.1%, and Libertarian Andrew Hunt at 3.5%.
Rather than drill into the specifics of the poll or question minutia I think I’ll take the path that, after a long time polling for some of the best news organizations in Georgia (including WSB-TV, for whom Landmark polled) that I should take. I’ll build Mr. Mark Rountree of Landmark up, rather than kick his tires (or other parts).
I think Mark is on the money—at least for where the race stands as of now. It has now been several months since I first started writing about the possibility of runoffs in both the Senate and gubernatorial races. Our own polling at InsiderAdvantage has consistently led me to conclude on Fox5 that there is a high likelihood of a runoff in at least one of the two contests.
This is partly due to the fact that Democrats in Georgia have managed to energize the African-American vote in a non-presidential year at an unexpectedly high level. Another contributing factor is the energy the Democrats pick up from having highly competitive contenders for two top offices in the same year (something they have lacked for several cycles).
Assuming Landmark’s numbers are correct, Nathan Deal would need virtually all of the undecided vote to avoid a runoff with Jason Carter and there would be virtually no way for Perdue or Nunn to win the contest next Tuesday.
This follows the logic of the RealClearPolitics average which basically has none of the four candidates within the grasp of an outright win on November 4th. Based on the usual bump the winner and loser receives from the RCP final average, everyone could be close, but no one would make it in either race without a runoff.
There is one caveat to all of this, something that would in no way be a knock on the WSB/Landmark poll. If Election Day turnout is heavier than normal for a midterm contest, it could suggest that a GOP wave, which appears to be building around the nation, might have reached Georgia. And both Deal and Perdue have been trending up in recent polling.
I have no idea what our final Fox5 Morris News poll will produce. But I will likely be more focused on what the RealClearPolitics averages for all of the candidates in both races are when all of the polls are in and the votes are to be counted. Deal would need his percentage of support to inch up more in order to escape a runoff. Nunn or Perdue would need a minor miracle to avoid one.
In the end, all of the pollsters for the network affiliates will likely have produced at least a good starting point for viewing the elections on Tuesday. We all are, within very tight margins, close to each other in our various results (given that we all poll on different schedules, capturing different ‘snapshots’ of the races at different moments in time).
I doubt any of us will be off by, say, 30 percentage points or so! But that’s left to the private pollsters who can get away with such antics.
Congrats to Mark and Landmark for good work this year. And if you are wrong Mark, I know you will be right the next time as you continue to build for the future. And if I’m wrong…well I’ll be in Florida regardless!
So candidates, don’t make me have to hang around through cold runoff contests. Prove us wrong.
