ATLANTA — A poll released Monday shows that by the time all the votes are counted Tuesday night, the elections for governor and senator may go into extra innings.
The survey by InsiderAdvantage for Morris News Service and Fox5 show no candidate with a clear majority, triggering a runoff in December for the governor’s office and one in January for the Senate.
Republican Senate nominee David Perdue has 48 percent to Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn’s 45 percent. Libertarian Amanda Swafford’s 3 percent is keeping the decision open until the runoff. There are still 4 percent of those surveyed who say they haven’t made up their minds.
In the governor’s contest, Republican incumbent Nathan Deal has 47 percent; Democrat Jason Carter has 44 percent, and Libertarian Andrew Hunt claims 5. There are 4 percent undecided in this race, too.
Political observers believe that people who are undecided on the eve of an election are less inclined to support an incumbent, whom they have had years to get behind if they wanted to. That could hurt Deal, but it’s an open question as to how they would evaluate the Senate candidates since one represents the incumbent president’s party and the other represents that of the incumbent senator, Saxby Chambliss, who is retiring.
But then again, those who are undecided may simply stay home, which would indeed help the Republicans.
The survey was conducted of 1,463 likely voters and has a 3 percent margin of error. It was conducted by automated recordings Sunday night.
While the poll shows both Deal and Perdue with less than a majority, it also reflects building momentum that could push them over the goal line by the time balloting ends Tuesday evening. Like a handful of other surveys released in recent days, the InsiderAdvantage assessment gives both Republicans a higher share of the vote than they were getting two weeks earlier.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery said the pair could be benefitting from a wave of GOP support building nationally. That growing optimism and string of polls in their favor could backfire if it depresses Republican turnout, he warns.
“We have some reason to believe GOP voter intensity is not as strong as one would expect,” he said. “The most likely cause is the fact than many voters don’t follow politics or political news closely, and some Republican voters are even assuming that GOP nominees will win their contests. Hence, some may not feel the need to go to the polls Tuesday.”
Still, he predicts Tuesday’s results aren’t likely to provide clear winners until most of the votes are counted late at night.
“Early numbers may well come from South Georgia or from the mountain areas where Deal and Perdue will be running well into the 60-percent plus range,” he said. “I doubt these races will really start to narrow until the largest counties of Fulton, DeKalb, and Cobb come in. That will be very late in the evening. For Republicans it will likely be a slow drop in their percentages with Democrats hanging on to every last number, hoping to push their races into a runoff.”
Follow Walter Jones on Twitter @MorrisNews and Facebook or contact him at walter.jones@morris.com.
