Veteran pollster Matt Towery raised doubts Thursday about a poll conducted by a Washington firm that found strong support among Georgians for paying higher gas taxes to fund transportation.
Towery characterized the survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research of Washington, D.C., as a “push poll” with detailed questions that influence respondents to form opinions.
Such a survey, while valid in some cases, wouldn’t be considered suitable for a news poll reported by a television or newspaper, which require more general questions allowing “undecided” responses, said Towery, the founder of InsiderAdvantage Georgia, a Fox5 political analyst and an attorney with Hall, Booth, Smith.
WPA conducted the poll for the Georgia Transportation Alliance, an arm of the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, which supports higher gas taxes to boost transportation funding.
“I think the WPA poll is fine for what it asks, which is really sort of a ‘would you be willing to support if it just costs a few extra cents out of your pocket and did all these great things?’ sort of survey,” Towery said. “The problem is that when you pass laws with big tax numbers or revenue numbers involved, they don’t get reported in such carefully worded language.”
While the WPA poll found that 57 percent of respondents would “be willing to pay a little more in gas tax” if the funds would go toward improving transportation and 53 percent support legislators raising an additional $1.5 billion in transportation funding, Towery said a series of news polls found little support for an increase in the state fuel excise tax, which a House bill proposes.
“The polling on the increase in the gasoline excise tax is pretty much established in the public news polling…ranging from our Fox5/Morris survey to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll early in January’” Towery said. “The general theme is that a straight news-type poll results in little support, particularly among Republican voters.”
Towery pointed out that the WPA poll still found low support, 47 percent, among Republican voters for gas tax increases to fund transportation. He also disputed that WPA was the only firm that predicted that now U.S. Sen. David Perdue would win November’s election without a runoff, as the AJC reported in an article about the Transportation Alliance poll. InsiderAdvantage also predicted Perdue’s victory without a runoff, he said.
“As far as one poll being closer in the Perdue race, that’s sort of apples and oranges,” Towery said. ”Broadcast news pollsters like us or Landmark or SurveyUSA aren’t allowed to ‘push’ respondents to the point that there no longer exists an undecided voter percentage.
“Our final Fox5 poll had Perdue ahead of Nunn, and our headline said that both Nunn and (Gov. Nathan) Deal were headed to wins without a runoff. When you get down to such slim numbers, you are pretty much splitting hairs as to how close the pollsters were to the result,” he continued.
“And whether it’s those of us who have to make our numbers public like the other network affiliate pollsters, or private firms that can choose to reveal their numbers after the fact, the numbers are still pretty weak when it comes to Republican voters who can’t get to 50 percent support no matter how a poll about gas or sales tax increases for transportation might be phrased.”
Towery predicted that Republicans in the Legislature won’t support a tax increase for transportation without a corresponding tax cut.
“There is a way to pass revenue enhancements for transportation,” he said. “It requires a combination of both a gas or sales tax increase coupled with a tax cut in property taxes or other tax relief.
“I really do believe this could be the year to tackle transportation funding, but it has to be very blunt and clear that any tax increase is being tied to some sort of tax cut. The issue is getting dedicated funds to transportation, and it will take a little magic to make it acceptable to voters.”
