Who could have predicted that presidential candidates would have made it this far into the 2016 election cycle without a lot of talk about the future of the Affordable Care Act (also known commonly as “Obamacare”)? While it was certainly front and center in President Barack Obama’s first term, replete with Republicans’ repeated efforts at repeal, it currently barely merits a mention in either the Democratic or Republican debates and campaigns.
Yet, although Obamacare has dodged potentially fatal shots in two different challenges that made their way to the U.S. Supreme Court, the evidence is mounting that the system will not survive its own weight, making either change or collapse a virtual certainty.
The reasons are straightforward. Rather than making health care and health-care insurance more affordable, the data increasingly confirms that health care and health-care insurance has never been more expensive than now. Both statistically and anecdotally, consumers are facing higher premiums with fewer choices and higher deductibles and co-pays.
Indeed, just in time for the holidays, individual Americans and their employers are getting the bad news that their health insurance premiums are increasing yet again under the Affordable Care Act to levels that are simply unsustainable for average Americans and small businesses. In order to make the numbers work even at these higher premiums, insurers are looking for ways to push more of the burden on patients for prescriptions and medical care.
Rather than leading to a healthier America, all of these premium hikes, hidden charges, and offloaded costs have produced some of the most unhealthy choices for Americans in modern history. According to a recent Gallup survey, almost one out of every three Americans say that they or a family member have put off treatment because of the costs of medical care. That is a 12 percent increase since 2001.
Projections are that the situation is not going to improve. Most experts expect double-digit increases in premiums with even more cost shifting from insurers to patients in the coming years. No solutions appear in sight. While premiums continue to rise, so do deductibles, producing out-of-pocket costs that no one except the most wealthy or employees with “luxury plans” (which carry with them an extra tax) can afford.
Even health-care insurers are feeling the pain of a plan that steadily fails to produce any of the benefits it promised to deliver. Indeed, United Healthcare, one of the largest health-care insurers in the United States, has announced that it may be forced to abandon Obamacare next year after sustaining half a billion dollars in losses because of it.
The data is just brutal. Based on figures from 17 of the largest insurers in the country, premiums for new businesses will increase by an average of 96 percent with premium increases for patients from 100 to 400 percent. Of course, individual consumers can attest to the impact annual premium increases have had on their lives since Obamacare’s inception in 2010.
Worse yet, even those paying for the higher-priced insurance with astronomical deductibles face seemingly insurmountable challenges in getting the health care for which they did pay. From unavailable medications to doctors scheduling appointments weeks in the future, health care has become anything but accessible. Instead, patients are facing indefinite delays in both seeing a doctor, and, once they do, getting the prescriptions they need.
Meanwhile, the health-care exchanges which were the cornerstone of the Affordable Care Act have been failing at a disturbing rate. According to the latest data, over half of the 17 state health-care exchanges are in serious financial trouble with many openly considering abandoning their exchanges in favor of the federal exchange which has been plagued with problems since its rollout.
Even individual employers and average citizens are balking at the president’s plan. With each passing year, more and more people are willing to pay the fine of $695 or 2.5 percent of their earnings rather than enroll in an Obamacare-compliant plan.
The result is that everyone from The Wall Street Journal to individual Americans concludes that “ObamaCare will almost inevitably be reopened in 2017, whoever wins the election.” Just one indication of its inevitable demise is the fact, noted by The Wall Street Journal in its editorial, that “The result is that in 11 states in 2014, the average plan paid more in claims than it collected in premiums.”
In simple terms, the Affordable Care Act has failed, and, unfortunately, cost many Americans dearly in the process. And even though presidential candidates are not talking about it, average Americans are. With each passing enrollment period, families and individuals are talking about just how bad things have gotten. With every delayed visit to the doctor or unfilled prescription, average Americans are confronting the problems of a failed system.
Make no mistake, by the time the 2016 general election rolls around, the pain level for voters will have passed the tipping point and both Democrats and Republicans will be discussing “the fix.” Unfortunately, absent a recognition that the current system is fundamentally flawed, the truth is that “the fix” will once again be in for average Americans and it will be a burden too great for them to carry.
While immigration and national security have taken center stage, it is Obamacare that is the sleeper issue that may in fact have the biggest impact on the 2016 presidential election.
Just watch and see.
Randy Evans is an attorney and columnist.
