A poll of 745 early and likely voters conducted by www.opinionsavvy.com in the March 1st Georgia GOP presidential primary shows Donald Trump with a 12 point lead just a week prior to primary date. Marco Rubio leads Ted Cruz by a slim margin in the fight for second place. In the Democratic contest also to be held March 1st, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead of 28 points over Bernie Sanders. The poll surveyed 491 early and likely Democratic voters. Both surveys were conducted by IVR phone and hand held mobile devices. They are weighted for age, race, and gender. The Republican survey has a margin of error of 3.6% and a confidence level of 95%. The Democratic survey has a margin of error of 4.4% and also a 95% confidence level. Crosstabs to come later.
The Results:
GOP Primary
Trump 34
Rubio 22
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 8
Undecided: 7
Democratic Primary
Clinton: 57
Sanders: 29
Undecided: 14
Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery: “On the Republican side, the race seems to mirror the vote in South Carolina. Once again, Trump leads Cruz among evangelicals and leads among older voters with Rubio leading among the youngest of voters and Trump right behind him. On the Democratic side, Clinton has a huge lead among African-American voters and older Democrats. Sanders is winning the age-30-44 contest but by just a few points. The youngest of voters (18-29) are going Sanders by a wide margin.
But in both races, absent a major event that could change minds, both Trump and Clinton appear headed to a victory in Georgia.
Trump voters are the most committed and a good number have early voted. It should be noted however, that since Jeb Bush appears on the ballot, he may still receive or have already received votes that might lower the various candidates’ final percentages. That would likely assist Mr. Cruz in an attempt to take second place given that many Bush supporters are expected to move to the Rubio camp. However, the impact should be negligible.
Clinton seems to have the battle locked up. Again, absent some major unexpected issue, Georgia will serve as part of her true “firewall” against Sanders. This survey also likely bodes well for the South Carolina Democratic contest this week. The two states have very similar demographics.”
