With the introduction of legislation in the state Senate to conduct a statewide referendum allowing casino destination resort gaming, and another bill to allow pari-mutuel horseracing wagering, some pundits wonder if history could repeat itself. Is this the state’s 2019 version of former Gov. Zell Miller’s lottery miracle which led to funding kindergarten-through-12th grade programs as well as the wildly successful HOPE Scholarship?
When Miller ran for governor in the ultra-conservative and heavily “blue dog” Georgia of 1990, political experts considered his bold proposal of a lottery — basically legalized gambling by scratch-off card or numerical entry– to be a mission of political suicide. The churches voiced opposition and the “Moral Majority” political action group (active at the time) and others vowed to annihilate the effort.
Miller won in a rout and after passage of a bill allowing the public to vote, Georgia joined other states such as its neighbor Florida, in creating one of the most successful lottery programs in America. Sales were beyond expectation and the benefits flowed to students who graduated with a B average or higher. Georgia colleges and universities, once viewed as not particularly competitive, suddenly zoomed towards the top in the US News’s annual rankings.
But as lottery experts around the nation report, tuition inflation has been impossible to keep up with. As one longtime lottery board member says, “there simply aren’t enough new games, even with the relatively new remote online/video style that we have, to keep producing the money to keep HOPE where it is.” And “where it is” is not “where it was.” To keep HOPE alive during his years as governor, Nathan Deal was forced to cut benefits and availability to keep the program afloat. He did so, according to those involved, to avoid an “ill founded” concept that “fat” from lottery operations could be cut to bolster returns. “That would have killed the golden goose” say lottery experts. Most of the lottery budget goes to marketing which is critical to keeping up sales.
But with the competitive nature of higher education, tuition inflation marches in and Georgia must keep up. The “Deal Compromise” was a band aid to cover a soon-to-be gaping wound.
Now comes the potential of casino gaming and horseracing.
And again, the political experts have their doubts. But those familiar with the gaming industry tell InsiderAdvantage that, regardless of the doubts, gaming in those forms (including sports betting, basically declared “fair game” by the Supreme Court) will come to Georgia sooner or later. As one Las Vegas-based expert states “It’s not a matter if, but when.” Already Georgia residents fill the parking lots of casinos in neighboring Florida, Alabama, and North Carolina. Even ultra-conservative Mississippi has a bevy of top resort gaming facilities. The expert explains “Several first-rate casinos would generate more than enough money to not only keep the Georgia Lottery afloat but to expand it for years to come.”
But can Republicans who generally represent more conservative constituents, support such an effort? Polls conducted by three different news organizations over the past few years show support among Republican voters to be as strong, if not stronger, than that of Democrats. Voters from both parties show support approaching or exceeding the 60 percent level.
But what about newly elected Gov. Brian Kemp? He has publicly stated that he opposes gambling. The good news for gaming advocates is that Kemp plays no official role in a passing a constitutional referendum, At least officially. The big hurdle is the two-thirds affirmative vote needed in the House and Senate to allow the pubic to vote on allowing gaming.
Kemp could take an active role in opposing a vote by the public, but the political risks might outweigh sticking to his constitutional role. And so far, Kemp has proved to be a measured governor not prone to issuing heavy edicts or playing highhandedly in dealing with other elected officials.
Of course, the big legislative hurdle would obviously require the votes of both Republicans and Democrats.
For the Republicans, the push would be preserving HOPE in areas outside of potential casino or horse racing locations and economic development in areas where such facilities might be located.
For Democrats there would need to be the creation of some “needs based” component of the HOPE Scholarship and an opportunity to be involved in the contracting related to creating gaming facilities.
The key to passage in Georgia, according to experts in the field, is to create not just casinos but full-fledged entertainment centers in the state. In neighboring states that has been the case, taking away the biggest concern often expressed about casinos– crime.
As one gaming expert puts it, “You are more likely to be robbed, shot or experience any sort of crime in your Buckhead area of Atlanta than at any major casino entertainment complex. We are all run by big corporations and are buttoned up like Fortune 500 companies. We don’t put up with any nonsense since we are so heavily regulated.”
So for Georgia, 2019 might truly be “Miller time” again.
Gary Reese is associate editor of James magazine and InsiderAdvantage.
