Spaceport Camden is one step closer to reality. With the release of the Flight Safety Analysis for Spaceport Camden Thursday, officials expect to have a decision on their license application by the FFA by the end of the year.
The analysis, prepared by The Aerospace Corporation, was part of a plan by the Camden County Board of Commissioners to increase transparency about the project’s licensing information without complicating the agency’s ongoing review or releasing sensitive or export-controlled information that cannot lawfully be shared with the public.
“We heard from Camden County residents that they wanted to better understand how Spaceport Camden could satisfy the FAA’s safety criteria. This report shows that Spaceport Camden cannot not only meet those requirements, but significantly exceeds them,” said, Jimmy Starline, Chairman of the Camden County Board of Commissioners.
According to Commissioners, they went “above and beyond on every test, making it as hard as possible to pass and allowed one of the most respected agencies for flight safety analysis to perform the tests. The Aerospace Corporation is a nonprofit corporation that operates a Federally Funded Research and Development Center for the United States Air Force and the intelligence community and supports all national security space programs.
“The Aerospace Corporation is the gold standard for flight safety analysis,” said Commission Vice-Chairman, Gary Blount. “Their work for the Department of Defense and NASA make some of their methodologies a sensitive national security issue but they are the best at what they do. I am glad we were able to clear the national security hurdles and make this information available to the public.”
According to officials, two primary risk factors are analyzed in a flight safety analysis: collective risk to all the population in the vicinity of a launch, also referred to as expected casualty (Ec), and individual risk (PInd) which is the risk to any one person in a government defined area. While PInd is not typically required for a spaceport license application, it is required for every launch license issued for an actual launch. Camden County Commissioners decided to include it in the analysis.
The analysis shows that there could be up to 40 people at every inhabitable structure on Cumberland Island and Little Cumberland Island — along with a full load of campers and visitors — and more than 5000 people watching for a small rocket launch. The analysis also found that there could be as 10 people at every inhabitable structure on Little Cumberland Island and Cumberland Island with the launch a Falcon 9 size rocket.
According to officials, there are currently 55 structures on the island. Also, Cumberland Island is limited by law to 300 visitors a day. The analysis assumes a maximum number of visits and that every campsite was full. It also assumed that every person was outside looking at the launch.
The report also states that “the launch vehicle was assumed to have a 5% failure probability for each stage of flight (ascent, second stage to orbit and first stage landing return, therefore 15% total failure rate). This total failure rate assumption is 50% higher than the 10 percent rate required by FAA regulations.”
Officials said the FAA specifies the acceptable level of cumulative risk for a launch to be less than 1 in 10,000 casualties to one significant figure. This means an estimated Ec of 1.49 per 10,000 passes the FAA requirement. The Spaceport Camden flight safety analysis of the medium-large launcher’s 100-degree reference trajectory demonstrates that it has less than 1.49 expected casualties in 10,000 over all phases of flight assuming up to 5 persons per habitable structure on Little Cumberland Island and North Cumberland Island, and the numerous other visitors and viewers in the Camden region.
Finally, even though it’s not required as part of the launch site application, Camden County ran the calculations required by the FAA for a company to launch from Spaceport Camden. This requirement is 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than the requirement for a launch site license. The analysis showed that Camden County passed that calculation without any problem as well.
“Camden County spent a considerable amount of time and resources to make this Flight Safety Analysis available to the public. The report proves definitively that we can launch a wide range of launch vehicles from Spaceport Camden with more than 2000 people on Little Cumberland Island and Cumberland Island,” said Chairman Starline.
