We are still a year away from the Census but as for knowing metro Atlanta’s regional population, we have some data to study and consider thanks to the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC). Every four years, the ARC conducts a population forecast and they just released the newest edition which predicts growth in a number of areas out to the year 2050.
The biggest number, overall population growth for the metro area, is that the ARC predicts the region will add 2.9 million new residents by 2050 – bringing the total 21-county area population to 8.6 million. The share of non-white residents is also predicted to grow significantly, from around 53 percent currently to 69 percent by 2050 – meaning white residents will make up 31 percent of the population by 2050. This would make African-Americans the largest single race or ethnicity group, at 34 percent.
The forecast also predicts a lot of elderly coming our way – no surprise given the demographic trends of the United States – but out of that 8.6 million, more than a million of them are predicted to be age 75 or older. This would make the 75 and older group the fastest growing age group in the region. However, the largest age group cohort will remain the same as it is today, the 0-22 group. The 23-38 and 39-54 groups will shrink.
County wise, Gwinnett is on track to surpass Fulton as the region’s most populous county by 2050. Fulton and Gwinnett are both pegged to hold around 1.5 million residents by 2050. Fulton is expected t add approximately half a million residents and Gwinnett is expected to add more than 600,000. Dawson County, the current smallest in the region with 23,000 residents, will add a few but remain the smallest with just 32,000 residents. Not a single county in the region is expected to lose residents, a much different prediction than for many other counties across the state.
With all these new people, there must be many more jobs available – despite so many of them being retirement age. Fulton is expected to remain as the job center for the region, with 1.2 million jobs, more than twice the number of jobs as any other county. Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett are each expected to add approximately 100,000 jobs – all growing from roughly 400,000 jobs to 500,000.
The biggest sector that will make up all those new jobs? All those elderly folks will need a lot of health care. Health care and social assistance are expected to add somewhere around 200,000 jobs – nearly double that of any other sector. “Professional, Scientific and Technical Services” will be the second biggest growth area. Only two sectors are predicted to lose jobs, manufacturing and utilities. Both of these sectors will continue to be dinged in the jobs numbers category by automation.
The full forecast is worth a read and could make for very interesting reading following the Census next year. Maybe even more interesting reading in 2050.
