Tom Graves’ announcement that he would leave Congress at the end of the current term came as a shock and has kindled ambition in the 14th Congressional District. Graves, who is not quite 50, is leaving Congress younger than most who step down. Now in his sixth term (he won the special election to succeed Nathan Deal who left to run for governor and, under congressional rules, a member elected in a special election gets to count the partial term), Graves’ career had bright spots but also disappointments. Despite frequent clashes with party leaders and loss of a long-shot bid to head up the GOP component of the powerful Appropriations Committee, he has achieved ranking minority member status on the committee’s Financial Services Subcommittee. If the GOP reclaims a majority in 2020 and had he stayed, Graves would have been one of the Cardinals on Appropriations – the title given those who chair its subcommittees, an indication of the power of these positions which takes its name from the College of Cardinals that elect popes.
It used to be said that members left Congress only to seek higher offices or due to illness. In the latter category were those who died or were slowed down by age or sickness and those sent into retirement when their constituents got sick of them.
Voluntary retirements remain rare in Georgia. Over the last half century, a baker’s dozen have opted not to run again and ended their political careers. During that time there have been almost 400 elections to the US House from Georgia meaning that over three percent involved retirements.
A number of members have lost elections and Newt Gingrich resigned when it became clear that he would not be reelected as Speaker. Usually election defeats were administered by a member of the party opposite that of the incumbent. Most recently Karen Handel lost in 2018, John Barrow lost in 2014 and Jim Marshall suffered the same fate in 2010. Less often defeat came at the hands of a fellow partisan as when John Davis lost to Larry McDonald in 1974 and when John Linder beat Bob Barr after a Democratic redistricting plan put the two Republicans in the same district. Cynthia McKinney lost not one but two Democratic primaries first vanquished by Denise Majette. But when Majette gave up her safe House seat for a futile challenge to Johnny Isakson for the Senate, McKinney returned to the House but fell to Hank Johnson two years later.
At least nine House members left the chamber to vie for a Senate seat. In 2014, Representatives Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun all competed for the seat won by David Perdue. A decade earlier Johnny Isakson beat Mac Collins in the GOP primary and Majette in the general election on the way to replace Zell Miller. Nathan Deal in 2010 and Bo Ginn in 1982 left Washington hoping to reach the Governor’s mansion.
Graves is not the only Georgian retiring in 2020. The Seventh District’s Rob Woodall announced in the spring that he would not seek another term. But Woodall’s situation differs from Graves. Graves represented one of the most secure GOP districts in the nation while Woodall narrowly survived in 2018 defeating Carolyn Bordeaux by 433 votes. With the Gwinnett portion of the Seventh District rapidly undergoing demographic change, Woodall might have held on in 2020, but it would not have been easy. So, in a sense, he is more an electoral victim than someone who steps aside and signs up for Medicare. Woodall and Graves were born eight days apart in 1970.
The departures of Graves and Woodall are part of a startling Republican exodus that began in 2016 when 25 Republicans stepped down. In 2018 another 34 Republicans bailed. The 2018 figure is the largest for the GOP at least since 1930 and the 2016 number is the third largest. What was especially surprising was the so many members of the majority party dropped out. Usually more members of the minority party leave since they do not get to chair committees or subcommittees and have less opportunity to enact their policy proposals. With the 2020 election almost 11 months away, another 22 Republicans have said they will not compete. These withdrawals suggest that Republicans do not perceive the prospects for reclaiming a House majority to be good.
With Graves and Woodall stepping down, Georgia’s GOP delegation has very little seniority. Come 2021 Austin Scott, in his sixth term, will be Georgia’s most senior Republican. Assuming that there are no more retirements and that the current members get reelected, the average seniority for the nine Republicans will be 3.6 terms. In contrast the average seniority for the five Democrats will be 10.6 terms. The high turnover among congressional Republicans since 2016 is auspicious for Georgia’s junior Republicans who can achieve subcommittee leadership positions earlier as the ranks above them have thinned out.
Georgia Democrats who, despite some defeats have not had a voluntary retirement since 1994, are well positioned to exercise influence in a Democratic-run House. John Lewis, Sanford Bishop and David Scott will each have served at least 18 years come 2021 and Hank Johnson will be starting his eighth term. Seniority, while not as important as it was prior to 1975, remains a major factor in determining who leads committees and subcommittees. Each of the four senior Democrats chairs a subcommittee. Bishop is an Appropriations Cardinal chairing the Agriculture and Rural Development Subcommittee. Ways and Means joins Appropriations as one of the most prized committees and John Lewis chairs Ways and Means’ Oversight Subcommittee. David Scott chairs the Commodity Exchange, Energy and Credit Subcommittee on Agriculture. Johnson leads the Judiciary’s Courts, Intellectual Property and Internet Subcommittee. Georgia’s GOP delegation will likely boast a number of subcommittee ranking minority members in 2021, or chairs if the Republicans reclaim the House majority, but none of these will be on the chamber’s exclusive committees.
Isakson’s retirements means Georgia will have a very junior senator in 2021 while its senior senator will be just starting his second term, assuming that David Perdue wins reelection, Georgia, although the nation’s eighth most populous state, will be poorly positioned to influence activities in the upper chamber. In the Senate, as in the House, seniority frequently correlates with influence. Some junior members through hard work, previous experience or luck become major players on selected issues but Congress remains an arena where length of tenure is often a pre-condition for power.
Charles S. Bullock, III, is University Professor of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia and co-author of Georgia Politics in a State of Change now in its third edition.
