Political scientists divide the support for candidates into components. Most of the vote a candidate receives is attributable to the candidate’s party affiliation. Strong partisans will vote for their party’s choice regardless of who it is. The other component is the personal vote. This is support based on attributes of the candidate above what the party label attracts. Some voters will break with their party to support an effective incumbent of the other party or for someone with whom they share a school or organization tie.
Unlike in Florida and North Carolina, Georgians don’t register by party. Other approaches exist for estimating the relative strength of the parties. One way is to look at how people vote in contests where there is little personal vote. If few voters know anything about the candidates, the party label will guide voters’ decisions.
Elections for the Public Service Commission are the kinds of low visibility contests that can give an idea as to the strength of the parties in the electorate exclusive of a personal vote. A decade ago the GOP had a commanding lead of 15 percentage points in PSC elections. Even in 2014, Republicans bested Democrats by more than 10 points.
The margin has narrowed. In both 2018 and 2020, the Republican candidates averaged 50% of the vote. In November of this year, Jason Shaw won with 50.11% of the vote while Lauren “Bubba” McDonald was forced into a runoff when limited to 49.91%. The 2018 election had a similar split outcome with Tricia Pridemore just clearing the majority vote threshold with 50.25% while Chuck Eaton had to compete in a runoff after polling 49.7%.
When a general election runoff is needed, it is because the Libertarian candidate siphoned off a few percentage points of the vote. In PSC candidate fields with a Libertarian, the Democrats’ vote shares are not 100% minus the GOP vote. Democratic PSC candidates over the last two elections averaged 47% of the vote. The 2018 average was 47.4% and in 2020 it was 46.8% meaning that the average Libertarian vote is about 3%.
The impact of a Libertarian candidate on a Democrat is less than on a Republican. Having a Libertarian in the candidate field reduces the Democratic vote by 0.38 percentage points from 47.15% to 46.77%.
How did 2020 candidates perform compared to the party vote plus incumbency? Using 51.15% for the Republican Party vote and 46.77% for the Democratic Party vote, incumbent Donald Trump with 49.26% and David Perdue with 49.73% lagged the GOP estimate. Joe Biden performed almost 3 points better than the Democratic figure while Jon Ossoff was a little over one point better.
Looking toward the January 5 Senate runoffs, Perdue should have the advantages often enjoyed by an incumbent since he has served a full term. Kelly Loeffler is an incumbent and is listed as such on the ballot but she was appointed and not elected and has been in office just one year. Having the I beside her name may confer some advantage but less than what Perdue gets for his longer tenure. If Perdue performs as well in the runoff as the 2018 incumbents with no Libertarian, he would get 52.85% and win by almost 6 points. If Loeffler’s performance were more in line with a Republican competing for an open seat, the 2018 results suggest that she might win by 3-points (51.5 – 48.5%).
While the 2018 results provide a basis for speculation, they are static and that is also suggested when the PSC outcomes for 2018 and 2020 are compared. However, at the top of the ticket, Georgia appears to be anything but static. Donald Trump won the state by 5.1 percentage points in the 2016 open seat contest but lost by 0.24 points as an incumbent. David Perdue beat Michelle Nunn by 8 points in 2014 which was a couple of points less than the partisan difference in the PSC vote. In November, Perdue but led Ossoff by 1.78 points.
Recent polling shows Perdue and Loeffler both slightly ahead but not by 6 or even 3 points. The vast sums spent on television ads and the multiple visits by popular figures in both parties suggest that neither the candidates nor their party leaders and advisers anticipate a comfortable victory. The Republican candidates will win if they secure the expected GOP vote. For the Democrats to win, they will need to get a personal vote in addition to what has been the Democratic Party vote.
Charles S. Bullock, III, is the Distinguished University Professor of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. He is co-author of Runoff Elections in the United States.
