The final FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage survey ahead of tomorrow’s midterm elections was conducted November 6th among 550 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 4.2%. Cross-tabs can be found HERE.
Analysis from InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery:
“Both the race for Governor and Lt. Governor of Georgia appear headed to Republican wins without a runoff. Ironically, the poor performance by Democrat Stacey Abrams in her gubernatorial contest appears to be impacting Sen. Raphael Warnock in his race. The final breakdown of early voting in Georgia indicates a less than robust African-American turnout. Our weighting adjusts that demographic at a higher final percentage in the event there is a more traditional/more robust turnout on Election Day. While African-Americans traditionally vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, our recent surveys have shown Walker with a solid 20 percent of that vote. Among white voters, Walker is surpassing the “magic” 61% usually needed for a Republican to win in the state.
“Gov. Brian Kemp’s strong performance may well “lift all boats” and put Walker over the necessary 50 percent plus one needed to escape a runoff. We expect Kemp to hit at least the 54% mark in the final vote and likely above that. With the rest of the GOP ticket above 50 percent, there is an increasing likelihood of a straight up Walker win. Warnock’s best hope is to hold Walker just under 50 percent and live to fight on in a now shortened Georgia runoff which would favor Walker.”
InsiderAdvantage was recently named the 2nd most accurate national pollster for the 2016 through 2020 presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial election cycles and the 3rd most accurate national pollsters for the 2020 presidential cycle by RealClearPolitics. The firm was rated ahead of every national news network and newspaper in both of the rankings of pollsters who poll in multiple states and nationwide.
