It’s true that Republicans in the U.S. Senate won’t have a majority in January. But whether the GOP has 50 members voting or only 49 after Georgia’s December 6th runoff, the result is still of great importance concerning policy outcomes and whether the 2021 two-party power-sharing agreement will remain or die.
As has been seen for the past two years, even with an evenly divided Senate, any one Democrat senator can prevent legislation from passing without GOP support. For that to remain the status quo, Republicans should hope that Herschel Walker defeats incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.
Consider these factors:
· Under the power-sharing agreement, both the Democrats and Republicans must split committee assignments evenly. So if Warnock were to win, Democrats on most issues would have no need to negotiate with the GOP— and there’s far less chance Republicans could defeat President Joe Biden’s nominees in committee.
· Fifty-one Democrat senators would give committee Democrats roughly double the allocation of funds for office space and staff than Republicans would have to draft legislation and prepare for investigations. Democrats would also control committee time, and Republicans would be allocated half as many witnesses at hearings.
· If Warnock wins, no single Democrat would then be able to hold up or kill a Biden nominee, as has been done by maverick Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va.
· A 51-49 Democrat majority also means that two of their senators could be absent and Democrats could still hold a vote and prevail with the presiding Democrat vice president breaking the tie.
· Finally, as has been pointed out by countless consultants and pundits, a Walker victory improves GOP chances for a Senate takeover in 2024. More vulnerable Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans that years. Also, if a Democrat seat becomes vacant for any reason before 2024, Republicans would immediately have a 50-49 majority. And when a Republican governor appoints a replacement, the number flips to 51-49.
This is why the Georgia runoff still matters on December 6th.
