Recently I was trying to illustrate a point to a Political Science class and referenced the television ad that David Perdue ran scores of times in which he portrayed his four major opponents as babes crying in front of the U.S. Capitol. The reference did not register. A sea of blank faces stared back at me. Trying to jog memories, I say, “You know, the ad that shows a field of babies crying while a voice over explains that these are career politicians responsible for the mess in Washington.” The faces remain blank. Continuing down my futile path, I ask the class which included a number of bright Political Science majors, “Don’t any of you ever watch the news on television because if you do, you are bound to have seen the Perdue ad?”
In response to that question the class explained that no, they do not watch television news, or much of anything on television. News, sports and entertainment come to the youngest voters not from television but via their computers.
Surveys have long shown that newspaper readership is down with young adults infrequently turning to the press for information. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are much more likely to provide the new generation of voters with political information and opinions than network news anchors.
The decision of many in the next generation of voters to avoid television news shows is but part of a bigger problem for candidates for office. Stewart and Colbert lampoon the national political scene. Even if these humorists provide much of the information used by a voter to evaluate candidates these sources will offer no insights for lower offices and many gubernatorial and senatorial candidates will escape their razor wit.
As the Perdue campaign demonstrates, messages propelled by millions of dollars of advertising do not reach many of these voters. Young voters disproportionately have cell phones and therefore escape the deluge of robocalls that now herald the onset of early voting. Voters with cell phones can still receive mail solicitations but research indicates that these pieces have little if any impact on the recipients. Those who rely on cell phones remain fair game for calls made by individuals associated with campaigns and personal calls do have an effect. But the caller ID barricade makes it difficult to contact voters.
Candidates face a daunting challenge – how to get their message before a share of the electorate destined to grow that is largely immune to traditional methods of contact. Will the social media suffice? Emails soliciting support can easily be deleted unread. Tweets can be ignored. Those who “like” a candidate or campaign are almost certainly already committed supporters. Posting videos on line reaches a small audience unless the video itself becomes a news story in which case it may be broadcast in whole or part, but that does reach those who avoid television. So unless the video goes viral, it may have a tiny audience.
The recent Republican runoff for Mississippi’s Senate seat may foreshadow the future. During the three weeks of the runoff Senator Thad Cochran, who ran second in the primary, scaled back his television advertising and concentrated on the ground game of getting supporters to the polls. Research has found that face-to-face contacts can add several percentage points to a candidate’s
vote total. Cochran’s team succeeded in mobilizing enough African Americans to vote in the GOP runoff and that allowed the incumbent to eke out a narrow victory.
Will we see a trend in which candidates reallocate increasing shares of their budgets from television to voter contact and mobilization? Will some of the money which has poured into ad buys go to generate computerized lists of prospects and provide sandwiches from Zaxbys to armies of volunteers marching through neighborhoods targeting households that appear likely to support the party or candidate? Few would object to a reduction in TV ads and some would even welcome a visit from an eager and informed advocate for a candidate.
Charles S. Bullock, III
Richard B. Russell Professor of Political Science
Co-author of Elections to Open Seats in the U.S. House: Where the Action Is
