Michelle Nunn was a concept who’s suddenly a candidate. The idea of her running for U.S. Senate has always had appeal, but she can no longer fly under the radar while prospective Republican opponents carpet-bomb one another on TV.
Voters have only vague notions about Nunn. That means the race is on to define her. Will she do the defining, or will a shrewd Perdue political machine beat her to it?
Here are a few points about the Nunn-David Perdue race that you might not have read or heard about yet:
* Much of the hoopla surrounding Nunn’s candidacy comes from a fawning media, especially national media. In what could be a rocky election season for Democrats, Nunn is a newly discovered star in an otherwise dark sky. That means her chances of winning may be exaggerated by hopeful journalists. At the same time, positivity can be contagious – including among campaign contributors.
* Neither Nunn nor Perdue has a record as an elected official. That means each candidate’s ‘record’ is going to be what their and their opponent’s TV ads say they are. And with majority control of the U.S. Senate on the line, that means money – lots of it, and lots of it from PACs, is likely to pour into Georgia from elsewhere this fall.
* Nunn has made public hints that negative campaigning should be minimized, but she is going to have little choice but to go after Perdue as aggressively as he will her. The reason is that Nunn is going to have try to have it both ways to garner enough votes to win: She must appeal to the Democrats’ base by being more liberal, and simultaneously to moderate and independent voters by being more centrist. That’s tough to do in today’s hyper-partisan political atmosphere. Nunn will realize that the solution will be to change the subject. And the way to do that is to attack David Perdue relentlessly.
* Since Perdue has a higher-profile resume than Nunn, he is also more vulnerable to attack. Nunn is likely to portray him as a Southern Mitt Romney – an out-of-touch elitist who got rich by being shifty on ethics and fair play. Perdue will concentrate on Nunn’s presumed guilt by association from being a Democrat, just as Barack Obama is. What else can he do to an opponent who is a blank slate to most voters?
* Turnout will decide the race, as IA’s Louis Mayeux pointed out last week. Turnout is tricky to predict this year. The public is in an ‘anti-‘ mood, but whether it’s more anti Democrat or anti-incumbent is hard to gauge. With Republican incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal with grime on his lapel from ethics allegations, the public’s sour mood may tilt as much anti-incumbent as anti-(Washington) Democrats this year. That could help Michelle Nunn as much as it does Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter.
* And the wildcard in the race? President Obama’s possible action on illegal immigration. Washington is ripe with rumors that the White House is about to grant de facto amnesty to millions by a legal sidestepping executive order. …Obama is no fool. He knows that such a measure would bait some Republicans into calling for his impeachment. And that could stir
many otherwise indifferent Democratic voters, especially African Americans, to rally around the cause and head to the polls. This would be a colossal political risk by the president. It might also decide Michele Nunn’s fate, by means of a strategy not of her making.
