Tracking polls that are sampling the Georgia GOP primary for governor show a tightening in the contest.
The Fox5/ InsiderAdvantage poll conducted last week showed Gov. Brian Kemp leading by a 54-38% margin. While his opponent David Perdue’s numbers increased a bit this week, Kemp dropped to the lowest level since the race commenced. Kemp was at the 51.6% level in last night’s tracking.
To Kemp’s benefit, though, early voting is underway– with Kemp likely the leader in that tally.
However, Perdue’s strong stand on abortion following the leaked Roe vs. Wade Supreme Court draft opinion, combined with an invigorated Donald Trump endorsement power following the large margin of victory for U.S. Senate J.D. Vance in Ohio, appear to have impacted the Georgia race.
Currently Kemp’s lost support has moved to the undecided column. That suggests voters are focused but likely confused. Kemp could easily bring those voters back into the fold. However, polling conducted following the SCOTUS leak shows GOP primary voters favoring a candidate who supports “a ban of abortion in Georgia,” versus one who will not commit “to a total ban— and it’s by a 65% to 30% margin (the rest undecided).
Additionally, an analysis of the Ohio primary shows a 5.5% “hidden bump” for the Trump endorsement of Vance. Whether that translates to Georgia GOP voters is unclear.
With early voting moving into high gear and the May 24th Election Day vote just weeks away, Kemp remains the favorite to win without a runoff. But the race is clearly in flux and closing, as expected by InsiderAdvantage polling. Chances for a gubernatorial runoff have increased but a trend has yet to set in for the contest.
