1) Voter turnout in Cobb and DeKalb
Early returns from Cobb and Dekalb Counties will offer an insight into whether the races for Governor and U.S. Senate will make it to a runoff or will be won outright, (likely by the Republican candidate). If early returns show turnout is high in the majority-Republican Cobb County, it may create a gap too big for the Democrats to recover from. Conversely, high turnout from Dekalb will be necessary if Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter have any hope of victory. Early voting numbers from the two counties have been a positive sign for Democrats, but races aren’t decided until election day.
Also, don’t be thrown off if the GOP surges to a big early lead. The dark-red South-Georgia counties will be the first to report, and will come back strong for the Republicans. Don’t turn the TV off thinking the race is over, (for good or for ill) until you start seeing numbers from the metro area, specifically Cobb and DeKalb.
2) Can Democrats Secure a Win Further Down the Ballot?
We all know about the hotly contested races for Governor and U.S. Senate, but there are a lot of other contests further down the ballot. While the Republican incumbents running for Secretary of State, Attorney General, Lt. Governor, and several other seats are likely safe, keep an eye on the battle between Valarie Wilson, (D) and Richard Woods (R) for State School Superintendent.
Many have called Wilson the Democrats’ best shot at winning a statewide race, and she has the fundraising numbers to support the theory, having raised over five times more than her opponent. Teachers groups such as the Georgia Association of Educators and the American Federation of Teachers pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into Liberal SuperPAC ‘Better Georgia’ on her behalf doesn’t hurt either. What really may give Wilson the edge though is her endorsement from current State School Superintendent, (and Republican) John Barge. Barge, who ran an ill-fated primary race for Governor Deal in July, isn’t exactly the most popular member of the GOP, but it’s hard to argue that his endorsement doesn’t mean something in what is shaping up to be a close race.
3) What will Libertarian Numbers Look Like?
One of the biggest reasons that prognosticators have been calling for runoffs in both the U.S. Senate and Governor’s races for months is the higher than average polling numbers for Libertarians in the two races. Typically these figures go down on election day, when voters decide to curb their ideals and vote for what is, (in their minds) the lesser of two evils. With two relatively unpopular Republican candidates running, though, we could see Libertarian numbers stay strong and force one or both of the high profile contests into a runoff. If either Amanda Swafford, (U.S. Senate) or Andrew Hunt, (Governor) can make it to 3.5% or so, expect these races to drag on past tonight.
