In May Cobb Commission Chairman Tim Lee avoided an outright loss in the Republican primary as chief rival Mike Boyce took home 49.1% of the vote, less than 400 votes from the majority needed to secure victory. Lee clearly took a hit due to his engineering of the Braves’ move to Cobb County, as his vote total decreased by nearly 15,000 votes from his total in 2014.
In that race, Lee took a 13 point lead into the runoff over former Cobb Chairman Bill Byrne, a lead which he would see shrink to 5 points in the runoff as the anti-Lee crowd consolidated. Mike Boyce and Larry Savage were also in that race, and ironically may have saved Lee in the primary by taking up 33% of the vote between them.
Turnout in the 2014 runoff, as expected, dropped off drastically from the primary the month prior. With over 50,000 less votes cast, Lee was able to harness his extensive ground game and experience to drive out enough voters to stave off a hard charging Byrne.
That strategy may not work as well four years later.
Now Lee must make up a 9 point deficit as opposed to hang on to a 13 point lead, and he must do it with the specter of an unpopular Braves move, (not to mention dreadful season) hanging over his head. With a robust Boyce campaign that boasts of having made nearly 50,000 calls to voters, 116 community events, and over 20,000 door to door contacts, the numbers just aren’t adding up for Lee to hold onto his seat.
