Momentum seems to be rolling towards U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston heading into his July 22nd grudge match with David Perdue, a fact that would have seemed unlikely during a primary that nearly saw Kingston eliminated. Ahead both in the polls and in the minds of most pundits watching the race unfold, the question is how did we get to this point?
When David Perdue took first place in the primary in May, his strongest districts were the uber-conservative 3rd, (West of Atlanta), 9th, (NE Georgia) and 11th, (Cobb & Bartow Counties). Far from Kingston’s home base in the Southern part of the state, these districts seem likely to go for Perdue again in the runoff. For Kingston, his own 1st District, (Savannah), the 12th, (Augusta), and the 8th, (Valdosta) were his strongest areas of support.
Perdue held smaller advantages over Kingston throughout the rest of the state, often battling with Karen Handel, (or in some cases Paul Broun) for votes.
So if Perdue beat Kingston in all but three districts in the primary, why do many believe that Kingston holds the edge heading into the runoff?
The answer is Karen Handel.
Handel and Perdue had some well documented run-ins in the primary, most noticeably when Perdue knocked her for a lack of a college degree in April, a remark which served to propel Handel back into contention as her campaign seized on the gaffe. When Handel lost by a slim margin in the primary though, the Perdue campaign must have breathed a sigh of relief. Gone was the female candidate, (always a dangerous qualification in a primary) gone was the Tea Party favorite, gone was the one opponent who truly seemed to have a reason to dislike Perdue. But as we’ve seen in the past, Karen Handel is not one to go off quietly into the night.
Handel, (along with Congressman Phil Gingrey) was quick to endorse Kingston, adding her sway in Metro-Atlanta and grassroots support to Kingston’s establishment endorsements, (read: U.S. Chamber of Commerce $$) and South Georgia base. Handel won the 6th, and 7th districts outright, and essentially tied in the 4th. A majority of her support going to Kingston in those districts will tighten up the gap between him and Perdue immensely. If Metro-Atlanta remains close and Kingston once again gets massive turnout from his home base in South Georgia, (which should be aided by a competitive race to fill his old Congressional seat in the 1st district) it’s tough to see a route to victory for Perdue.
So with Kingston getting the support of the establishment in D.C., the Tea Party, (as lukewarm as that support may be) and his biggest competition in the primary, what is left for Perdue? The ‘Outsider’ message doesn’t seem to ring as true unless Tea Party fervor is attached, and the ‘businessman’ rhetoric falls flat when the very face of business is pouring millions into ad buys supporting Kingston. Two weeks can seem an eternity in a race like this, but from here it looks like Kingston’s path back to D.C. is pretty clear.
