Let me preface this story by stating that I am not a betting man. Not yet anyway. I’m making my first pilgrimage to Las Vegas this weekend, so smart money would probably on this being the last time I’ll be able to make that claim. Looks like Rand Paul is at 18/1 odds to win the Presidency in 2016 right now, anybody think I should put a hundred bucks on him? Can you even bet on politics in Vegas or is that strictly a weird British-gambing-website sort of thing? In any case, I don’t think you can really put money on local races on account of gambling is illegal here. Besides, how would you even know who to bet on? Well I’ll tell you; you’d read this article, that’s how.
CD 1: Buddy Carter vs. Bob Johnson
This race has profiled more than any other in the state as a classic GOP-civil war-establishment vs Tea Party matchup. Carter has the background in state politics and the endorsement of just about every elected official in South Georgia. Johnson just received nearly $400,000 worth of ad buys from Tea Party organization The Club for Growth, and has repeatedly attacked Carter for acting ‘like a liberal’ in the Georgia Assembly. This past Sunday the pair had a heated mud wrestl… er.. slinging match — if you’re into that sort of thing the debate airs Wednesday at 7:00pm on GPB. All in all the candidates aren’t really that different. Both are staunchly conservative GOPers in a staunchly conservative district. As we saw in the Senate Primary, where Jack Kingston received 75% of the vote from his home district, CD 1 is fiercely loyal to its elected officials. That bodes well for Carter, who won the primary fairly handily.
Prediction: Carter 58% —– Johnson 42%
CD 10: Mike Collins vs. Jody Hice
Hands down the most fun race of the election cycle. You’ve got two candidates who essentially tied in the primary, (Hice 33.5% to Collins 33%). There have been weird youtube Vanilla-Ice satire videos. There have been the revelations that Hice thinks the gay community wants to recruit and sodomize children. There have been revelations that Hice thinks Muslims don’t deserve 1st Amendment protection. There have been mailers sent out to Democratic voters in the district encouraging them to vote for Collins, which of course has the Debbie Dooley’s and Erick Erickson’s of the world crying foul and hearkening back to the Thad Cochran race in Mississippi. Hice has that rare quality of turning off Democrats, independents, moderate Republicans, and presumably regular Republicans. Unfortunately for Collins, this is the district that elected Paul Broun, who unsurprisingly has endorsed Hice. This one looks like it will be the closest of the lot, don’t be surprised to see a redux of the Cochran-McDaniel race where Democrats come across the aisle to choose what is in their minds the lesser of two evils.
Prediction: Collins 53% —– Hice 47%
CD 11: Bob Barr vs. Barry Loudermilk
This has been a hot race on social media, with supporters of both candidates engaging in as much verbal sparring as the candidates themselves. Loudermilk finished first in the Primary by a fairly large margin, including winning Barr’s home-base of Cobb, so heading into the runoff he looked like the early favorite. The State Senator seems like a fairly standard Republican candidate; whatever knocks he might have gotten for being so far to the right on social issues are balanced out by how conservative the district is. Meanwhile Barr’s history of… erm… being very open minded when it comes to changing his stance on certain issues probably isn’t doing him any favors as he tries to claw back into the race. Loudermilk’s campaign released an internal poll last week saying he was up 49% to 28%, but as always internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt. Barr’s camp insists the race is tight, with most of Tricia Pridemore’s and Ed Lindsey’s supporters coming over to his side, but the lack of any public polling supporting that idea may be telling.
Prediction: Loudermilk 60% —– Barr 40%
U.S. Senate: David Perdue vs. Jack Kingston
This race, like the rest, has gotten downright nasty as it has hit the homestretch. The debate on Sunday consisted almost purely of back and forth attacks, with Perdue harping on Kingston’s fundraising connection to a Palestinian businessman awaiting deportation for a federal conviction, and Kingston accusing Perdue of abusing his power as an appointed member of the Georgia Ports Authority. Momentum seemed to have crossed over to Kingston after the primary, but polling done by Public Policy Polling as well as by your own favorite political news organization show that it has tightened up closer to the runoff. The Kingston campaign seems to have done the better job in this long runoff process though, and another high turnout from his home district, (driven in part by that Congressional race) should see the Congressman take the next step up to the Senate.
Prediction: Kingston 55% —– Perdue 45%
