Unofficial tracking poll results from InsiderAdvantage and OpinionSavvy suggest that the GOP U.S. Senate contest between Jack Kingston and David Perdue may have tightened over the weekend. As the “likely voter” pool shrinks and the turnout looks shallow, our tracking shows the two candidates running close to each other. “This is such a difficult race in that the voter turnout is likely to be so weak that literally anything could happen” said InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery. “Kingston polls better with younger voters and men. If the vote skews slightly older or if the female vote is stronger in the runoff, then Perdue could have a chance to pull off an upset.”
Towery said he could see last minute problems for both candidates. “Perdue’s camp produced an entire last minute TV ad about Jack Kingston supporting amnesty but never told voters what it was amnesty for…they never explained that it was about immigration. And voters don’t just guess at what you are talking about…lots of wasted video and airtime dollars on that one.” But he said the Kingston campaign may have committed a bigger error. “They (the Kingston campaign) have had a pretty mediocre robocall GOTV effort. They had a chance to hire the folks who helped Karen Handel remain so competitive for relatively little money, but they failed to do it. They have Handel herself and that’s a huge plus, but if they lose this on turnout they will probably regret that move.”
And for purposes of clarity, the last and final InsiderAdvantage/ Fox5/ Morris poll gave Kingston a 5 point edge. A WSB/Landmark poll gave Kingston a 7 point lead, and every news poll conducted during the runoff has given the edge to Kingston. “This is like trying to predict an ice storm in Georgia when it’s still 40 degrees outside and the moisture hasn’t arrived” Towery joked. He added “It may well be the last undecided voters who get up Tuesday and make a choice who decide this one.”
