Note: Tonight InsiderAdvantage will be covering all the elections with up to the minute updates. Be sure to check here for results and tune into Fox 5 Atlanta to see our own Matt Towery give his insights.
Low Turnout a High Factor
The fact that a mid-summer runoff will have low turnout comes as no surprise. Voting percentages are expected to be in the low-mid teens as opposed to the around 20% who showed up for the May 20th primaries. Such a small number of voters can do funny things to a race, but on the Senate side it appears that Jack Kingston stands to benefit most. Kingston has the more robust grassroots campaign, which should deliver more supporters who will make it to the polls rain or shine, (note that it is expected to rain throughout most of the state tomorrow, further dampening turnout). He will also once again rely on the rabid support of his home district in South Georgia, a district which has the motivation of a relatively competitive Congressional race to help in driving turnout. We expect the race to be close, but Kingston’s folks have to be feeling confident.
Cobb the Key for Barr
If Bob Barr hopes to have any chance of defeating Barry Loudermilk in the race for the 11th Congressional District, he’ll need to carry his home county of Cobb by a fairly large margin. Loudermilk actually won the county in the primary, which can’t be a good sign for Barr’s folks, but the ex-Congressman and Presidential candidate has spent so much time in the county over the past couple of months that his team is confident they will carry it this time around. If when early results come in Cobb looks close, (or Loudermilk once again takes it) then it’s likely lights out for Barr.
Will Dems Turn Out for Collins?
A mailer sent out to registered Democrats in Georgia’s 10th Congressional District urging them to vote against Jody Hice, (and thus for Collins) in the Republican Primary drew comparisons to the Cochran-McDaniel race in Mississippi. Accusations flew and what was already a heated contest burst into flames. Word that Hice’s core parts of the district had high turnout in early voting could show that the move backfired by enraging his far-right supporters, but at the same time high turnout could also mean that Democrats are indeed crossing the aisle and voting for Collins. Expect a tight race in CD 10, and should Collins emerge by a slim margin expect the Hice team to create a McDaniel-esque stink.
#WeKnowNathan Campaign Backfires
The Nathan Deal campaign attempted to start a heartwarming twitter campaign for their candidate today, one that would ideally feature an outpouring of support for the embattled governor over social media and help him regain some momentum lost in the ethics scandal that reignited last week. Unfortunately Deal’s campaign folks don’t have a great grasp on how social media works. Naturally the Governor’s critics jumped all over the hashtag, flooding Twitter with such brutal gems as “#weknownathan thinks the only thing salt’s good for during the winter is french fries”. To make matters worse, whoever rolled out the campaign forgot to purchase the domain for weknownathan.com. Naturally, it was quickly bought up by Better Georgia, a liberal PAC supporting Carter, and already hosts a laundry list of links bashing the Governor. Somewhere there’s a social media director with their head in their hands, trying to figure out how to make the best of a big idea that just backfired in a major way.
