At this point in the game, it’s all about the ads. Debates, campaign stops, and grassroots efforts are all well and good, but to reach the handful of true ‘undecideds’ who are going to determine a victor in the races for U.S. Senate and Governor, you’re going to have to get them through their TV’s. The problem, though, is that commercials are wildly expensive, especially for those prime time spots, (football, anyone?) where you’re reaching as much of your core audience as possible. The notion that a candidate receives all their money from in-state or in sub-$100 donations is nice, but that’s all really more of August-talk at this point. When the only thing that matters is that result on November 4th, the candidates will take help wherever they can find it, and in this case ‘help’ is coming in the form of multi-million dollar ad buys from a variety of outside sources.
Buoyed by a better than expected September fundraising total, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has purchased $1.45 million worth of ads in Georgia supporting candidate David Perdue, who according to all recent polling is locked in what amounts to a dead heat with opponent Michelle Nunn.
The Ending Spending Super-PAC has already said it will spend another $2 million on ads through election day going after Nunn, this after the group has already spent roughly $1.5 million attacking the Democratic candidate throughout the election cycle.
Michelle Nunn, with the luxury of avoiding a costly primary race, has not received nearly the same amount of outside spending as her opponent. Her biggest supporter thus far has been the Georgians Together Super-Pac, which has spent a mere $400,000 on the race. Don’t be too quick to shed any tears for the former Points of Light CEO though, she reported raising a staggering $4.15 million in the third quarter, making her one of the top Democratic fundraisers across the entire country. She’ll need every bit of that money to keep pace with Perdue’s team as well as the deep-pocketed groups supporting him.
A statewide race is not going to see the same level of outside spending as a national race, but that’s not to say that there hasn’t been any action in the race between Gov. Nathan Deal and Jason Carter.
The Republican Governor’s Association has already spent $1.6 million in the race on behalf of Deal, and another large ad buy, (totaling in the hundreds of thousands of dollars) is on the way to keep the below ad on TV through the 6th of November.
The candidates have very similar amounts of money left on hand, ($2.8 million for Carter, $2.6 million for Deal) after strong fundraising performances in the third quarter. With polls showing a close race, outside spending could push one of the gubernatorial hopefuls over the edge. The RGA will certainly attempt to make that happen for Deal.
The one other thing to consider as the candidates blow out their cash reserves over the next three weeks is the possibility of a runoff, a scenario which looks increasingly likely as the polls tighten. The addition of another month, (or two months in the case of the Senate race) would not only force the exhausted campaigns to remain fully engaged, but would also require another influx of money to stay on the air. With most local contributors tapped, the outside groups that have been circling would smell blood in the water, dumping more money into the races in a frantic final push to see their candidate through to victory. Such a scenario would likely favor the Republicans, who have more outside support as well as the natural advantage of better turnout in runoffs.
