Much like the race itself, another change in ratings for Georgia’s 12th congressional district flew under the radar over the weekend. That doesn’t make it any less significant, though; the pitched clash between Democratic Rep. John Barrow and Rick Allen has been given “Toss-up” status by Real Clear Politics.
The shift is in favor of Allen. Previously, the race had been rated as “Leans Democratic” and the site’s assessment of the race stated Barrow is “the favorite, but given the Republican lean of his district and the apparent mood of the country, he can’t take anything for granted.”
Now, however, comes news “that this race is closer than many had previously suspected.” That new summary of Allen v. Barrow carries with it no new poll results. Thus far, the only public polling we have seen has been by way of an internal from Allen’s campaign. It gave the Blue Dog incumbent a wafer-thin edge of 44-42 percent. Allen led among voters who said they were familiar with both candidates, 46-42 percent. That’s still the only poll listed on RCP’s profile, so unless privy to poll results we have yet to see, the ratings shift is the result of on the ground sources in Georgia.
Both sides continue to maintain confidence that the momentum is with them. The National Republican Congressional Committee has steadily upped their investment in the race; what began as an $800,000 ad reservation has increased to the neighborhood of $2 million. Allen himself has turned to his own deep pockets late in the game, loaning his campaign around $300,000 this month alone. He hasn’t been shy about making a personal investment before, be it his felled 2012 effort or this go round, but it’s noticeable given the late hour.
On the other side, outside forces have been steady in their support of Barrow by way of ads attacking Allen’s business record. More ads were run in this race than any other House contest in the month of September, and a clear majority of those were done by Barrow or on his behalf. A Barrow spokesman recently declared they were more confident than they had ever been before.
What makes the shift all the more interesting is The Washington Post’s dramatic flip-flop in its Election Lab prognosis of the race, which I detailed in a piece last week. It had previously been one of the only national publications to give Allen strong odds of victory, but suddenly shifted to giving Barrow a 74 percent chance of winning. RCP has now done the opposite, moving in the direction of an Allen victory.
That this late in the game such shifts would veer in opposite directions underscore the lack of public polling data available. However, giving Barrow a 74 percent chance of victory is generous at best. Both sides agree that Allen is a much tougher foe than Lee Anderson was in 2012, and if the Democrat’s re-election were that much of a lock, the NRCC would have long since pulled out in favor of other pickup opportunities.
The assessment of RCP seems far more likely – “this appears to be a true tossup now.” It’s what folks on the ground are saying, it’s what the one poll on the race indicates, and it’s what the outside spending has shown.
