The Democrats thought they had it all figured out. They had President Obama’s voter tracking technology, they had changing demographics, they had young, inspiring candidates, and a bevy of star liberal personalities flitting in and out of the state raising money and hopes for a political revolution that never came. What they didn’t have though, was the turnout they needed to knock off either of the mostly uninspiring Republican candidates for Governor or U.S. Senate that lay before them.
After the legendary Obama wins in 2008 and 2012, Democratic strategists believed they had discovered the way to win races in red states. By capturing the minds of a younger, more progressive generation, they could match the 65 and up turnout that had foiled them for a decade or more across the southeast. They stole seats in Florida, Kansas, and Virginia. They trounced two centrist candidates in John McCain and Mitt Romney and cackled in delight when the far right recoiled and tried to drag the GOP further in that direction.
Things were all set up for 2014, where there were finally two legitimate Democrats at the top of the ticket, backed by a party with six years worth of refining their campaign technology. It seemed to be going well, with hundreds of thousands of minority voters added to the rolls, with competitive, (even victorious) debates, and a pair of Republican candidates who didn’t inspire their party so much as just point to that (R) next to their names and hope for the best.
The problem for the Dems though, in Georgia as well as the rest of the South, was that the momentum gained in 2008 and 2012 wasn’t because of a shift in demographics, or fancy voter targeting technology. It wasn’t because of Generation X, (or Y) collectively opening their political consciousness, or that the GOP had become so out of touch with social issues that it couldn’t possibly win on a large scale. No, it was because the turnout in 2008 and 2012, across the nation and up and down the ballot, was because of Barack Hussein Obama and the cult of personality that followed him.
It was that one man who inspired the historically large turnout, (especially from minority voters) and it was his absence on the ballot that kept them at home in 2014. Democrats ran from the President and his plummeting popularity in Georgia and in other competitive races when they should have been embracing him. Instead of trying to corral those white middle class independent voters, they should have been trying to register and turn out the hundreds of thousands of minority voters in the state. While a 40% approval rating overall might as well have been a warning siren telling Democratic campaigns to keep Obama at arm’s length, his 85% approval rating among black voters paints a picture of what could have been.
No candidate in history has been able to rally the minority vote like the current President, so to turn away from him completely in a race where minority turnout would figure to be key was a crucial mistake. Once they stumble to shore and look back at the GOP wave that swept them away in the 2014 midterms, Democratic strategists will have to wonder if their strategy was the right one.
