Georgia’s total early vote count – both early in-person and absentees— is a whopping 3,903,356 — with many GOP-dominated counties reporting record numbers. The state’s early vote is within 200,000 votes of the total 2016 presidential election turnout. Also, a poll exclusive to InsiderAdvantage released last night by our Chairman Matt Towery has President Donald Trump leading Democrat Joe Biden by two points.
According to the website georgiavotes.com the top turnout among Georgia’s 14 U.S. congressional districts was the 6th District currently held by Democrat Rep. Lucy McBath. It is Georgia’s highest-educated and highest-income district. Early voting there came to 332,443 while the 2016 total turnout (everyone who voted, whether early or on election day) was 331,251. Lowest turnout was in the southwest Georgia 2nd District of Democrat Rep. Sanford Bishop– 208,670 votes.
About two dozen counties already have seen more people voting than the totals of everyone (early or “late” voting) in 2016. Greene County– a major recreation area at Lake Oconee– has tallied 9,764 votes— a 10 percent increase over their total 2016 turnout.
Among the state’s 10 most populated counties, GOP-dominated Forsyth is worth mentioning with turnout of 15 percent above its 2016 turnout. (The county cast 97,404 votes for president last time and was at 112,414 in early voting.) Some counties in the conservative 9th Congressional District (held by Rep. Doug Collins) have seen higher turnout than in 2016— like Dawson, Hall (Gainesville) and Lumpkin (Dahlonega). And GOP-leaning Oconee County outside of Athens has exceeded its 2016 turnout.
On the other hand, reliably Democratic Fulton County (which has not voted GOP for president since the 1972 Nixon landslide) has already exceeded its 2016 presidential turnout (early voting there came to 442,761 compared with 430,599 for president in 2016). Rapidly Republican-turning-Democrat Gwinnett County has already surpassed its 2016 turnout. (Some of the increase in Fulton may be white, as the black turnout so far has been disproportionately low there compared with voter registration numbers.) Dougherty County (Albany), a Democratic stronghold, has seen fairly low turnout so far. Black turnout is also disproportionately low in Clarke County/Athens (just 20.7% of early voting in Athens has been black compared with 26.6% of Clarke County registered voters who are black) and in Chatham (Savannah), where 33.4% of the early vote has been black but 36.2% of registered are black (based on July 2020 voter data from the Secretary of State).
Georgia General Assembly numbers
There are a lot of close state legislative races. Perhaps the most vulnerable House Republicans (a better-than-even chance of losing) are Brett Harrell in Snellville (his district went for Democrat Stacy Abrams by 13 points in 2018), Dale Rutledge in Henry County (which is turning blue very quickly) and Ed Setzler in Kennesaw (whose district barely voted for Gov. Brian Kemp in 2018).
In no particular order, other House races to watch with vulnerable Republicans are Sharon Cooper and Don Parsons in East Cobb County. (Cooper’s district backed Abrams in 2018 and voted 54 percent Democratic in the June 9th primary), Chuck Martin in Alpharetta, Bonnie Rich and Chuck Efstration in Gwinnett, Karen Mathiak in the Griffin area and Heath Clark in Warner Robins.
In the Senate, P.K. Martin of Gwinnett is very vulnerable (his district voted 58% Democratic in the June primary), as are John Albers in north Fulton (whose district went 60% Democratic in the June primary) and Brian Strickland in Henry County (whose district voted majority Democratic in the June primary). Also keep an eye on the open eastern Gwinnett seat of Renee Unterman, which backed Trump and Kemp but also voted Democratic in the June primary. Vulnerable Democrats include House Minority Leader Bob Trammell, D-Luthersville, whose rural district went for Trump in 2016 and state Rep. John McLaurin representing state House District 51 (Sandy Springs, Roswell and Johns Creek). He is challenged by Republican attorney Alex Kaufman, who barely lost to McLaurin in 2018 in a district long held by Republicans.
