Dr. Tom Smith
Publisher’s Note: We commissioned Dr. Tom Smith, an economist and professor in the Practice of Finance at the Emory University Goizueta Business School, to explain why Georgia should host an early 2024 presidential primary. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago and is a specialist in the areas of labor economics, pricing, film finance, sports economics and finance, as well as the economics of the entertainment and health care industries. Smith is one of Goizueta Business School’s most sought-after experts.
INSIDERADVANTAGE: In what form does the economic benefit of an earlier presidential primary come? Does it impact working Georgians and small businesses, or just big corporations and the media?
SMITH: If Georgia becomes an early presidential state, precedent shows candidates will ramp up their campaigning here, in turn spending money on rents, transportation, food, supplies, rallies, and wages. These candidates will spend money in small communities and likely will buy goods and services from small and large companies alike. Candidates will make appearances in small towns and neighborhoods – cooking BBQ and holding rallies. Particularly, if the Republican presidential primary is held earlier in the calendar, Georgians across the state will see a significant increase in economic activity. All that makes a big impact across the board.
INSIDERADVANTAGE: Talk a little bit more about the tax revenue. How did you calculate that? Is it enough to actually impact a local budget?
SMITH: The tax revenue is based on local spending and the tax rates associated with the state and counties around the state. I used data from https://www.fec.gov/ to find historical spending by candidates in the first primary states, then extrapolated likely spending by candidate on various goods, such as rent, transportation, supplies, etc. I used those historic spending patterns and the likely location of this spending and then applied tax rates.
INSIDERADVANTAGE: You mention briefly at the end of your report that this economic impact will be spread out across major metros areas throughout the state. What do exurban counties or smaller rural counties stand to gain if anything at all?
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