With early voting underway a new InsiderAdvantage survey shows Keisha Lance Bottoms positioned to potentially win the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia without a runoff. In the Republican contest Rick Jackson’s lead over Burt Jones has narrowed.
The survey was conducted April 28-29; 800 Likely voters; MOE 3.46%; Weighted for age, race, gender; Mixed mode text/panel. Crosstabs to be posted later today.
Democrat Results:
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 52%
Michael Thurmond: 16%
Geoff Duncan: 9%
Jason Esteves: 5%
Other: 4%
No Opinion/ Undecided: 14%
Republican Results:
Rick Jackson: 28%
Burt Jones: 24%
Brad Raffensperger: 18%
Chris Carr: 11%
Other: 7%
No Opinion/Undecided: 12%
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage Pollster Matt Towery:
The Democratic primary is relatively simple. In a primary in which female African American voters dominate, Lance Bottoms has a majority of both African American and female voters. Add to that a healthy portion of white voters and a majority of men and you have a recipe for a likely win with no runoff. She enjoys name identification that the the other candidates lack.
The Republican contest is more complex. Jackson and Jones are near a statistical tie given the margin of error for the survey. They both look to be headed towards a runoff. Both Raffensperger and Carr have gained ground. But Carr’s rise splits the more moderate/less Trump supportive GOP vote with Raffensperger. Were one of the two candidates not on the ballot, the remaining one would have a chance of making it to a runoff. But at present it looks like Jackson and Jones are the likely runoff candidates.
