By now you’ve heard the story. The Democrats have finally fielded competitive candidates to run for Governor and U.S. Senate. The DNC has pledged resources, including the voter-targeting software developed by President Obama’s campaign team which helped drive out record vote numbers in 2008 and 2012. Dekalb, Fulton, Clayton, and Lowndes, (all majority Democratic counties) have all opened up multiple Sundays for early voting, and Bibb County, (the home of Macon) is the latest to consider the idea. And then there’s House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams’ ‘New Georgia Project’ organization, which is under investigation for voter fraud by the Secretary of State’s office after registering some 85,000 minority voters, (25 of which, or .00029%, were reported as fraudulent).
What will all this mean come November 6th? Is the ceaseless whispering that Georgia might become a purple state finally coming true? Do the Democrats have a chance to pull off the upset(s)? Let’s take a look at the numbers to find out.
The state of Georgia currently has around 900,000 unregistered minority voters, roughly 80% (720,000) of whom would be likely to vote Democrat. Obviously there is no way that every possible voter will be registered, (or even close).
Over the past three midterm elections, an average of 885,000 minority voters have cast votes in each cycle, (compared to an average of 1,498,000 in Presidential election years). The turnout rate for registered voters over that time was roughly 69%, ( of 1,268,800). If we assume 80% of these minority voters voted Democrat, we’re looking at roughly 700,000 votes.
In 2010, there were 2,576,161 votes cast in total for the Governor’s race, with Nathan Deal receiving 1,365,832, (53%) and his Democratic opponent Roy Barnes taking 1,107,011, (43%). John Monds, the Libertarian candidate in 2010, took home 4% of the vote, (a number which could be crucial in 2014). Deal defeated Barnes by 258,821 votes.
The stated goal of Abrams’ ‘New Georgia Project’ is to up the minority vote by some 120,000. With 85,000 voters already claimed as registered by the group and another 20,000 by partner organizations, that number seems very much in reach by the October 6th registration deadline.
If the Democrats can truly add another 150,000 voters or so to the register, (120,000 from the ‘New Georgia Project’ and sister organizations and another 30,000 from more traditional outreach), they’ll be within striking distance of Governor Deal. The impending barrage on Deal’s ethics issues from the Carter campaign should further close the gap. If Sunday voting in several Democratic counties can increase turnout, the race will draw even tighter. Adding those votes to the 2010 numbers and increasing minority turnout among registered voters to 75%, (including from the newly registered voters) gives us some 850,000 Democratic votes from minorities, an increase of around 150,000 from 2010 and a number that could very well send the race to a runoff.
